俄烏戰爭下歐盟對俄羅斯之經濟制裁與反制裁

Economic Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions of the Russia-

俄烏戰爭導致歐盟對俄羅斯實施前所未有的經濟制裁，而俄羅斯也對制裁進行反制措施。本文分析對俄衝擊最大的金融與能源兩項制裁。因歐盟的能源制裁非全面封鎖性，屬於漸進與妥協，以及能源流向亞洲，影子船隊興起，紓緩能源制裁力道。流向歐洲的能源並不限於歐洲間互相流通，大量的俄羅斯原油或石油製品也經由亞洲輸往歐洲，價格上限造成影子船隊興起。限制金融服務與進入西方資本市場、逐出「環球銀行金融電信協會」以及資產凍結雖然造成短期金融震盪，但俄羅斯透過關閉金融市場、大幅調高關鍵利率以及限制資本流動以防止資本外逃以穩住金融市場。而此次對俄經濟制裁有效性不足之因，俄羅斯除了符合傳統理論所提出的屬於大型經濟、資源豐富、集權所帶來的政治穩定等幾項原因外，本文認為俄羅斯對經濟制裁準備時長、制裁僅改變商品流通路徑、經濟重心轉向亞洲亦是原因。

From the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the end of 2023, the European Union（EU）has implemented 12 rounds of economic sanctions against Russia. These sanctions have targeted Russia's energy, finance, trade, industry, transportation, and individuals. The scope and scale of the sanctions is unprecedented in history. The Russian economy and financial system were significantly affected at the beginning. However, the stabilization measures taken by the Russian government, including the redirection of energy exports to Asia, the imposition of regulatory and supportive financial measures, and the expansion of state subsidies, have resulted in a Russian economy that has not suffered as much as originally predicted. This paper argues that the ineffectiveness of the sanctions against Russia can be attributed to three primary factors: Russia's long-term preparation for the sanctions, the inability of the sanctions to stop the flow of goods due to their nature of necessity, and the shift in Russia's economic focus to Asia. However, as the sanctions remain in place and continue to expand, and Western countries persist in adjusting the direction of sanction measures. Therefore, the future development of the Russian economy still faces considerable challenges.