以GHEM分析臺灣觀光產業之COVID-19衝擊對整體經濟之影響

在疫情發生前五年，外國旅客以觀光為目的來臺的人次都突破750萬人次，國人國內旅遊都超過1億5千萬人次。但2019年底爆發新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情，政府開始實施邊境管制和各項防疫政策，使外國旅客來臺觀光和國人國內旅遊人次都明顯下降。COVID-19疫情對臺灣觀光產業產生多大的經濟損失?進而對臺灣整體產業之總產值與社會福利影響為何?是值得探討的議題。鑑於過往文獻關注觀光經濟分析時，通常專注在產業所受到的全面衝擊，往往忽略特定產業只受到部分衝擊的影響。在此文獻缺口下，本研究從產業關聯的觀點，以一般化假設抽離方法衡量COVID-19疫情對臺灣整體經濟影響，提供管理決策者在執行重大災害因應策略的參考。

Five years before the outbreak, foreign sightseers visiting Taiwan surpassed 7.5 million, while domestic travelers exceeded 150 million. However, with the explosion of COVID-19, the government began to implement border control and various pandemic prevention policies, resulting in a significant drop in foreign and domestic tourists. How much economic damage did the COVID-19 outbreak cause to Taiwan's tourism and, indeed, to its overall industry? This topic is worth exploring, given that previous literature usually focuses on the overall impact on the industry and often ignores the partial effect on specific industries. Based on this literature gap, this study uses GHEM to measure the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Taiwan's overall economy from the perspective of industry linkages. The findings in this research can provide implications for management decision-makers in implementing major disaster response strategies.