民族主義與中國應對防擴散典則之政策歷史記憶及主權原則的影響

本文結合文字探勘與個案研究，以分析中國政治菁英之間的民族主義是否存在？若果，則中國民族主義的核心概念─歷史記憶與主權原則，是否影響其官員對不同議題的態度？本文以中國外交部發言人在2000年到2021年間針對國際反擴散典則的回應文稿為分析標的，並透過是否涉及歷史記憶與是否涉及主權原則而區分為六個案例。本文發現民族主義的歷史記憶確實影響到中國政治菁英應對不同議題的態度，因此中國對生化武器擴散的態度較為負面，也更傾向正面回應生化武器的防擴散典則。因為中國過去為了塑造民族主義而著力宣傳的歷史記憶限制了其對生化武器擴散的態度，而同樣的現象則未出現在中國應對核武擴散的議題。主權原則也影響中國對相同議題的態度，對透明化議題的態度較為負面，因為中國認為透明化及其代表的查驗或情報行動將侵害主權；而相較於可由中國自主決定的進出口管制，中國的態度則較為正面，因為進出口管制未涉及讓渡內政或國內事務的權力。最後，在議題僅涉及透明化的條件下，中國較不傾向以負面詞彙應對涉及生化武器之透明化議題，僅在涉及區域議題或其他國家之際方使用負面詞彙。

This essay attempts to combine two approaches—text-mining and case study—to investigate whether nationalism among Chinese political elites is existential? If this sort of nationalism does exist, how do the core concepts of Chinese nationalism, specifically the memory of the history after 1840 and the war experience during World War II, cause the different attitudes of Chinese political elites toward different issues? This study analyzes the readouts about China’s reflections on the non-proliferation of chemical and biological weapons and nuclear weapons made by the spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs between 2000 and 2021. Meanwhile, this study categorizes these statements into six cases based on the memory about history and sovereignty. In summary, this study finds that: China exhibits a more positive stance towards biological weapons proliferation and tends to endorse non-proliferation norms for biological weapons. This is because China’s historical memory, promoted to shape nationalism, restricts its attitude towards biological weapons proliferation. A similar phenomenon does not appear in China’s approach to nuclear weapons proliferation issues. Sovereignty principles also influence China’s attitudes towards the same issues. China holds a negative view on transparency issues, perceiving them as infringements on sovereignty, whereas it adopts a more positive stance on export controls, which it views as within its domestic authority. Finally, when issues only involve transparency, China is less inclined to use negative language specifically towards transparency issues related to biological weapons, reserving such negative words for regional or international issues.