經濟政策不確定性對總消費貸款的影響──新興經濟體的實證研究

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Aggregate Consumer Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

本文應用Topçu and Oran（2021）所提出的土耳其新興經濟政策不確定性指數（EPU index），探討土耳其經濟政策不確定性對總消費貸款需求的影響。本研究運用自我迴歸遞延分配模型（ARDL）分析2002Q4–2021Q2資料，並將通貨膨脹、利率、和國內生產毛額（GDP）作為解釋變數。研究結果顯示，落後的EPU指數在短期內對消費貸款需求具有顯著負向影響，但在長期上EPU指數對消費貸款需求具有顯著正向影響。短期負向影響主要歸因於預防性儲蓄動機，而長期正向效果則來自於政府政策的影響。由不同地區的EPU指數顯示，除中國EPU指數外，歐洲、美國、俄羅斯和全球EPU指數對土耳其的總貸款需求沒有影響。鑑於EPU對總消費貸款有顯著影響，且土耳其因政治不確定性和選舉以致EPU指數飆升，因此本文建議採取措施以增強制度的彈性。即使在政治有干擾或改變時，這些措施仍可使得決策過程保有穩健性及有效性。

This study aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on aggregate consumer loan demand in Türkiye using a novel Turkish EPU index developed by Topçu and Oran (2021). In addition, we included inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variables. The data covers the period from 2002Q4 to 2021Q2, and the analysis was conducted using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results demonstrate a significant and negative impact of the lagged EPU index on the demand for consumer loan amount in the short-term, while indicating a significant and positive impact of the EPU index in the long-term. The short-term negative sign is attributed to the precautionary saving motive while the long-term positive sign reflects the influence of government policies. Alternative indices from various regions revealed that Europe, the United States (US), Russia, and global EPU had no impact on aggregate loan demand in Türkiye, except for the Chinese EPU index. In light of the significant impact that Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) has on consumer loan demand and given that the Turkish EPU index mainly rises due to political uncertainty and elections, it is imperative to adopt measures that strengthen institutional resilience. This strengthening will ensure that decision-making processes remain robust and effective, even amidst potential governmental changes or disruptions.