高中生大學聯考分數的預測分析

本研究旨在實徵預測我國高級中學畢業生大學聯考分數之高低變異，以了解高級中學教育成就情形及其決定因素。除利用教育部提供之八十一、八十學年度聯考相關資料外，並按公立高中升學率高、中、低分層，抽選樣本，計三十校，九十班，計3775人，利用自編之「高級中學升學功能相關因素調查表」與「高中學生升學相關資料問卷」分別搜集到學校與個別學生之資料，依據理論模式，作相關分析、變異數分析、及結構性迴歸分析。結果發現：學生聯考分數高低，可以由學生個人、家庭、及學校各方面的變因加以預測，有的預測量可以高至百分之百，為完全之預測。以較各種預測分析，學校方面變因之預測作用最大，學生次之，家庭再其次，與外國的發現迥然不同。在學校特性因素中，物資資源分配並非重要因素。學校歷史、文化、傳統、地區、師資，與學校政策及作法為主要的決定因素。綜此，本研究理論架構得到徵實。

This project was aimed to investigate and to predict the outcomes of senior high schools in terms of the distribution of their students' scores obtained in Joint College Entrance Examination and whereby to explore the pattern and characteristics of school stratification in Taiwan. The data for this study included annual report of JCEE in 1992， 1991 and those data collected by a questionnaire administered to student sample of 3775， 90 classes in 30 schools; and a survey scale administered to the school sample of 30 schools， of which 10 from pretigious upper stratum schools， 10 from middle ones， 10 from lower ones. Correlation analyses， and multiple regression analyses were computed on the data collected. Upon which some major findings were as follows. A possibility was confirmed that the students' achievement in terms of their scores in JCEE can be predicted by a multiple regression (1). Taking school history， culture and tradition， (2). Taking students' aptitude and characteristics， (3). Taking students' hom environment variables separately or collectively as predictors. Among those predictions the variance explained is the largest when school variables were taken as predictors. Based on those findings， the study concluded that school cultural theory， school effectiveness theory is more appropriate to explain the variation of schooling success rather than resource distribution theory.