| 英文摘要 |
This article examines Bernanke’s explanations concerning the currently topical economic issues of inflation targeting and the global savings glut, and seeks to clarify the misconceptions within them. On inflation targeting, the main conclusions are as follows: 1) The best practice for the inflation targeting policy framework is“constrained discretion”, with the setting of long-term inflation targets for which the core CPI serves as the best indicator. Such an approach can avoid instability in monetary multipliers. 2) Setting an inflation target can strengthen financial market stability and reduce asset-price volatility. The central bank should prudently intervene during an asset price bubble. 3) Bernanke’s inflation targeting places equal emphasis on inflation and deflation.
On the global savings glut, we conclude: 1) It offers an explanation of how the US current account deficit can be sustainable. Its occurrence is mainly caused by an aging population in many advanced countries, while emerging countries have changed from the role of capital importers to that of capital exporters. 2) The recent US real-estate bubble has caused increased investment and decreased saving, exacerbating the savings deficiency. Countries running trade surpluses with the US have financed its current account deficit by using their excess savings to purchase US treasuries, resulting in a depression of long-term US interest rates, and transferring the phenomena to other countries. 3) Bernanke disapproves of allowing the US current account deficit to worsen. The government and private sector should increase savings and adjust their macroeconomic structure. |
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