從風險決策角度探討震後耐震補強接受意願──以臺南永康區與花蓮市為例

Discussion on the Willingness to Accept Post-Seismic Reinforcement from the Perspective of Risk Decision: Case Study in Yongkang District of Tainan and Hualien City of Hualien County

探討影響大眾對公共政策接受意願的決策行為研究，於都市環境政策規劃與管理上的重要性不可言喻，尤其近代強調以人為本的都市災害管理思維轉變下更凸顯其必要性，近期因應老舊建物因耐震程度不足之住宅耐震補強政策即為一例。在地震災害風險具高度不確性的特性，使得傳統理性決策理論下之相關模型並未能解釋其行為特性，取而代之研究者朝向使用風險知覺、信任與責任等變數嘗試去回應在資訊不確定性下之風險決策，其中相關研究開始注意到情感的影響而引發討論。爰此，本研究運用以情感、風險知覺、信任、責任、行為意圖所建構之政策接受模型為基礎，著重於探討震後影響居民住宅補強政策接受意願重要變數間之結構關係。於研究實證地區上，以近期曾發生震度5弱以上且具嚴重災損之臺南市永康區與花蓮縣花蓮市為實證地區，並以災害發生後3個月之電話訪問調查資料為基礎，透過結構方程式與多群組分析以剖析重要因素與政策接受意願的結構關係。研究成果指出，政策接受模型於解釋震後決策行為意圖上具有良好的配置度與解釋能力（R2達0.37），且證實信任對行為意圖有直接影響。雖情感變數並未對行為意圖有直接影響，亦透過其他變數有間接影響。最後，透過多群組分析結果顯示政策接受模型於永康與花蓮在震後決策行為意圖適用性上有顯著差異，表示於震後決策行為意圖因兩縣市空間區位特性差異而使變數結構關係上導致改變。未來逐漸轉向以人為導向的災害管理概念下，透過上述研究成果可作為主管機關政策推行，透過與居民溝通的過程中，梳理影響政策支持的重要關鍵，針對透過不同之溝通策略以達成政策目標。

Discussing the research on decision-making behaviors that affect the public’s willingness to accept public policies is indescribably important in the planning and management of urban environmental policies, especially under the modern emphasis on people-oriented changes in urban disaster management thinking. An example is the seismic reinforcement policy for residential buildings due to insufficient earthquake resistance. Due to the highly uncertain characteristics of earthquake disaster risk, the relevant models under the traditional rational decision-making theory cannot explain its behavioral characteristics. Instead, researchers use variables such as risk perception, trust, and responsibility to try to respond to risk decision under information uncertainty, in which relevant researches began to notice the influence of affection and that triggered discussions. Therefore, based on the policy acceptance model constructed by affection, risk perception, trust, responsibility, and behavioral intention, this study focuses on exploring the structural relationship among the important variables that affect residents’housing reinforcement policy acceptance after the earthquake. Yongkang District of Tainan City and Hualien City of Hualien County, which have recently experienced severe disasters of level 5 or above, are used as the demonstration area, and based on the telephone interview survey data 3 months after the disaster, through the structural equation modeling and multiple group analysis to dissect the structural relationship between important factors and policies acceptance. The research results indicate that the policy acceptance model has a good allocation degree and interpretive ability in explaining the behavioral intention of decision-making after the earthquake (R2 reaches 0.37), and it is confirmed that trust has a direct impact on behavioral intention. Although affection variable does not have a direct impact on behavioral intentions, it also has an indirect impact through other variables. Finally, the multi-group analysis results show that there is a significant difference in the post-earthquake decision behavior intention applicability of the policy acceptance model between Yongkang and Hualien. It indicates that the structural relationship of variables changed due to differences in the spatial location characteristics of the two places. In the future, under the gradually shift to the concept of people-oriented disaster management, the above research results can be used as the policy implementation of the competent authority, and through the process of communicating with residents, sort out the important keys that affect policy support, and aim at achieving policy goals through different communication strategies.