北向海流影響多氯聯苯於沿海流布之多介質模式建構

A Fugacity Approach on the Fate and Transport of Polychlorinated Biphenyls Affected by a Northward Current along Coastal Area

即使多氯聯苯在臺灣已禁用超過二十年，彰化縣沿海地區的沉積物中仍可發現多氯聯苯，仍無法完全忽視其對沿海區域底棲生物之潛在危害。如欲探討多氯聯苯對生態系統之影響，了解其於沿海地區的宿命為關鍵步驟。因此，本研究依據多氯聯苯之物化特性與彰化沿海環境特性建立多介質逸壓模式，以描述多氯聯苯於沿海區域之宿命，進而推估多氯聯苯於海水與底泥之濃度。另外，藉由情境模擬，探討不同多氯聯苯排放情形下，模擬值於實測值之差距，以確立模式之可用性。結果指出本研究建構之模式能夠使工業區沿海底泥之多氯聯苯濃度預測誤差~5.3%，具高預測能力（RE≤10%），但工業區沿海北面預測誤差僅能介於0.80至0.35之間。並且推估受北向海流影響下，彰濱工業區沿海之海水與底泥多氯聯苯濃度分別介於0.1–0.3μg L−1與0.2–0.6 ng g−1。本研究建立之逸壓模式，能夠預測多氯聯苯在北向海流影響下於沿海區域之濃度，並且具探究多氯聯苯流布情形之潛力，有助於未來提供關鍵訊息作為沿海環境管理方針。

Although polychlorinated biphenyls（PCBs）have been banned for more than 20 years, they still could be found in sediment in the coastal zone in Changhua County, Taiwan, indicating that the negative impact of PCBs on the wetland ecosystem should not be neglected. The key step in exploring its impact on ecosystems is to determine their fate and transport in the coastal zone. Therefore, we establish a multimedia model using fugacity approach to illustrate the fate and transport of PCB along the coastal area. The fugacity model could be applied to estimate the concentrations of PCBs in seawater and sediment. In addition, we simulate PCBs concentrations in different scenarios to compare their values with observations to ensure the performance of the model. Results show that the model has high prediction accuracy in that the relative errors for sediment of coastal area along the industrial park could be ~5.3%（Relative error≤10%）, whereas those for sediment of coastal area along the northern periphery of the industrial park fairly range from 0.35 to 0.80. We also estimate the concentrations of PCBs in seawater（0.1–0.3μg L−1）and sediment（0.2–0.6 ng g−1）when there is a northward current along the coastal area. The fugacity model developed in this study can predict the fate and transport of PCBs affected by a northward current along the coastal area and has the potential to explore the transport behaviors. It could be applied to imparting crucial information to coastal environmental management.