美中經濟競爭－－半導體產業發展的可能推演

U.S.-China Economic Rivalry: The Semiconductor Industry Possible Deduction of Development

拜登總統上任後強調與中國競爭但不尋求衝突，並將晶片視為21世紀的馬蹄鐵釘，針對中國先進半導體產業的科技戰就成爲美、中競爭的核心。美國通過『晶片與科學法案』補貼美國半導體生產並提供稅收減免，將帶動全球半導體供應鏈的重組，也影響全球半導體產業重鎮的台灣。對對安全依賴美國，經濟依賴中國大陸的台灣來說，美、中在半導體供應鏈上較勁，雖帶給台灣新機運，但也隱含著風險，需要有更清晰的未來圖像以協助決策。然而因爲不確定性的存在，單一途徑的預測並無助於降低風險。因此本文試圖透過遠程想定技術，以中國是否能夠突破「卡脖子」技術以及市場對先進製程晶片的需求這兩項高不確定因素作爲主軸，採用矩陣模型發展想定，描繪美、中經濟競合下，2028年半導體產業發展的可能情境，以供參考。

U.S. President Joe Biden emphasizes competition with China but does not seek conflict, and regards chips as a horseshoe nail in the 21^(st) century. The technological war against China's advanced semiconductor industry has become the core of the competition between the United States and China. The United States passed the Chip and Science Act (CHIPS and Science Act) to subsidize US semiconductor production and provide tax breaks, which will drive the reorganization of the global semiconductor supply chain and also affect Taiwan, which is the center of the global semiconductor industry. For Taiwan, which relies on the United States for security and mainland China for its economy, the rivalry between the United States and China in the semiconductor supply chain has brought Taiwan new opportunities, but it also implies risks. A clearer picture of the future is needed to assist decision-making. However, because of the uncertainty, a single pathway prediction does not help reduce risk. Therefore, this article attempts to use the remote scenario technology to take the two high uncertain factors of whether China can break through the ''stuck neck'' technology and the market's demand for advanced process chips as the main axis, and uses the matrix model to develop scenarios to describe the economic competition between the United States and China, the possible scenarios for the development of the semiconductor industry in 2028, for reference.