制度化對中共菁英甄補之影響：評估十七大政治局的新人選

The Impact of Institutionalization on Chinese Top Elite Recruitment: Who are the Frontrunners of the New Members of 17th Politburo?

近幾年以來，許多學者指出中共菁英甄補逐漸受到制度因素的影響。綜合學者對於制度因素的討論後，本文得出三個必要條件與五個充分條件，用以評估2007年十七大時最可能首度進入政治局的人選。本文使用的三個必要條件是「現任（十六屆）中央委員或是候補中央委員」、「現任正省部級幹部，2007年時已經歷練同級職務達五年以上」、「2007年十七大時年齡必須低於六十四歲（含六十四歲）」。五個充分條件則是「相對年齡優勢」、「最佳年齡優勢」、「地方歷練」、「交流經驗」、「財經管理經驗」。分析結果發現李克強、王岐山、李源潮、習近平、韓正、薄熙來六人最具競爭優勢。另一位具有競爭優勢的楊傳堂因健康出現嚴重問題，已經喪失進入第五代領導班子的機會。不過，本文未考量非制度性因素對中共菁英甄補的影響，勢必降低評估的信度。同時，某些制度性因素無法取得相關訊息（健康狀況），或是目前尚未操作化（政績），導致它們無法納入考量，皆會增加誤差範圍。這些都是未來研究必須突破的地方。

In the past several years, scholars have emphasized on the increasing importance of institutional factors in China’s elite recruitment. According to the existing literature, this paper derives three necessary conditions and five sufficient conditions as the criteria to evaluate who among China’s top elite would most likely be selected as the new members of CCP’s Politburo in 2007. The three necessary conditions discussed here are: (1) incumbent members (or alternate members) of the 16th CCP Central Committee; (2) incumbent leading cadres with the experience at the full-ministerial level for at least 5 years; and (3) cadres under the age of 64 in the year of 2007. The five sufficient conditions are: (1) relative age advantage; (2) best age advantage; (3) the experience of leading a province; (4) the experience of working in different provinces or in the central and local governments; and (5) the knowledge background in economics and management. Based on these criteria, this paper chooses seven frontrunners—they are Li Keqiang, Wang Qishan, Li Yuanchao, Xi Jinping, Han Zheng, Bo Xilai and Yang Chuantang. Among them, Yang first lost his competitive advantage several months ago because of serious illness. This paper doesn’t take non-institutional factors such as factional affiliation into account. In addition, it excludes some institutional factions that either have no information available (such as cadres’health conditions), or have not been operationalized (such as cadres’performance). These insufficiencies will affect the reliability of the conclusion of this paper to a certain degree. Further researches should aim at overcoming these weaknesses.