印太戰略QUAD的新古典現實主義分析：以印度的角色為例

Neoclassical Realism Analysis of QUAD: The Case of India

區域防衛的概念在歐洲被廣泛接受，但長期以來印太區域並未建立如北約般穩固的多國軍事同盟機制。新古典現實主義認為推動國家政策之成因除了外部因素也包含必須考慮國內政治中國家所面對的情況，探討領導者意象、戰略文化、國家-社會關係與國內制度如何影響認知、決策與政策執行，進而影響政策反應與國際結果。印度外交政策目標是推動印度成為大國，左右逢源的外交政策有助於提升印度的國際地位，也是傳統不結盟政策的延續，且印度身為開發中國家，政府與民間均將發展國家經濟視為國家第一要務，對於他國事務往往不願過度介入或選邊站。QUAD想要轉型為亞洲北約，需要進一步推動QUAD下開放式架構的合作機制，再聚焦經濟利益強化各國合作意願，最終才是以「中國因素」吸引印度參與進一步軍事合作，創造更大成功機會。

The concept of regional defense has been recognized in Europe, but the Indo-Pacific region has not established a multinational military alliance. Neoclassical realism believes that in addition to external factors, the causes of national foreign policy must also consider the domestic politics. It explores how leader’s image, strategic culture, state-society relations and domestic institutions affect cognition, decision-making and policy implementation, which affects policy responses and international outcomes. India's foreign policy goal is to promote India to become a great power. The open foreign policy will help improve India's international status and it is also a continuation of the traditional non-aligned policy. As a developing country, economic growth is the top priority of India, unwilling to intervene too much or choose sides. If QUAD wants to transform into an Asian NATO, it first needs to promote an open cooperation mechanism based on QUAD, then focus on economic interests to strengthen India's willingness to cooperate, and finally use the ''Chinese factor'' to attract India to participate in further military cooperation and create greater possibilities.