緬甸的族群政治

Ethnic Politics of Myanmar

世人對緬甸的印象不外乎貧窮、落後、軍政府掌權、翁山蘇姬、政變、洛興亞難民等。近年來諾貝爾獎得主翁山蘇姬一度掌權，讓世人看到緬甸民主與改革曙光。然而，隨著2021年2月1目的政變，軍政府重新掌權，緬甸政治再度陷入泥淖。何以緬甸的政治會出現如此困局？本文從族群政治的觀點探討，發現未能化解的族群紛擾可說是誘發緬甸政治困局的重要因素。緬甸是一個多族群的國家，歷史上緬族與各少數族群即處於競爭的態勢，而英國殖民時期所採的分而治之政策，更加惡化緬族與少數族群的關係，而洛興亞難民問題也種因於這個時期。1948年緬甸獨立之初，原先在著名的彬龍協定裏規劃聯邦主義，讓少數族群享有自治權甚至分離權。然而，這樣的政策於獨立之後並未被落實，導致少數族群的不滿，進而演變成武裝族群衝突，如此一來也催化了軍人權力的坐大，進而藉此長期掌權。非民選的軍人主政不但戕害民主，同時也因爲治國專業不足而傷害了經濟，同時他們也自恃大權在握而不願修補與少數族群之間的關係，並把洛興亞人當成各種問題的替罪羔羊。本文認爲，當代緬甸政治的泥淖根源於未能解決的族群政治，而回歸緬甸獨立之初的彬龍精神，透過適當的制度設計，准許少數族群自治權等，或許是可行的方法。

This article discusses from the perspective of ethnic politics, and finds that the unresolved ethnic turmoil can be an important factor that induces Myanmar's political dilemma. Myanmar is a multi-ethnic country. Historically, the Burmese and various ethnic minorities were in a state of competition. The divide and rule policy adopted during the British colonial period worsened their relationship, and the Rohingya issue can also be traced back to this period. At the beginning of Myanmar's independence in 1948, federalism was originally planned in the famous Panglong Agreement, allowing ethnic minorities to enjoy autonomy and even the right of secession. However, such a policy was not implemented after independence, which led to dissatisfaction among the minority groups, and in turn evolved into ethnic armed conflicts. This situation also catalyzed the rise of military rulers, and then they used it as excuses to stay in power for a long time. Unelected military rulers not only undermine democracy, but also hurt the economy due to their lack of expertise in governing the country. They are also reluctant to mend relations with minorities, and use the Rohingya people as scapegoats. This article argues that the quagmire of contemporary Myanmar politics is rooted in unresolved ethnic politics since its independence. It is suggested that returning to the Panglong spirit and having appropriate institutional design, such as federalism, may be a feasible way to solve Myanmar's political predicament.