運用追蹤資料向量誤差修正模型檢驗勞動、資本與總要素生產力對於大型廠商出口貿易影響之差異

Panel VECM Approach to Examining Differences in Labour, Capital and Total Factor Productivity on Large Companies' Export Revenue and Export Intensity

為了檢驗廠商的總要素生產力、勞動生產力、資本生產力對於其出口值與出口密集度的影響，本研究運用追蹤資料向量誤差修正模型（panel VECM）分析2006－2015年間克羅埃西亞前三百大出口商的廠商層級資料。本研究的重要性有以下兩層面。首先，VECM決定了廠商在總要素生產力、勞動生產力、資本生產力之衝擊下分別會產生的長、短期反應。總要素生產力的衝擊會影響出口值成長，但不影響出口密集度的成長。勞動生產力的衝擊對於出口值成長與出口密集度的成長皆沒有影響。然而，資本生產力的衝擊對於出口值成長與出口密集度的成長都會造成影響。此外，相較於總要素生產力的衝擊，資本生產力造成衝擊之後整個系統回復到均衡所需的時間較久。其次，本文亦探論了生產力對於出口值與出口密集度成長造成的長、短期效果之政策意涵與管理意涵。

In order to answer how increases in total factor productivity, labour productivity and capital productivity affect equilibrium export growth and export intensity growth, a panel vector error correction model (VECM) is applied onto a firm level data of Croatia's 300 largest exporters in the period 2006-2015. Significance of this study is twofold. Firstly, VECM approach determines short and long run responses to shocks in total factor productivity, labour productivity and capital productivity. Results show that shocks in total factor productivity affects export growth but not export intensity growth. Labour productivity shocks do not affect export or export intensity growth, while capital productivity shocks have an effect on both export and export intensity, whereby the system takes longer to go back to equilibrium after capital productivity shocks than total productivity shocks. Secondly, managerial and policy implications of short-term and long-term effects of total factor productivity and labour productivity on export and export intensity growth are discussed.