政府效能與政治穩定：各國2020年COVID──19防疫成效的一個系統性解釋

Government Effectiveness and Political Stability: A Systematic Explanation for Countries' COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention Performance in 2020

在整個2020年影響世界政治經濟最重要的事件，無疑就是COVID-19的疫情對全球所帶來的衝擊。然而，即便是在政治經濟條件相似的國家之中，各國疫情的嚴重程度還是有著明顯的差異，而各種對於各國防疫工作表現差異的解釋也尚未有定論。據此，本文試圖根據文獻中的論點與各國的經驗，來對各國在2020年時對COVID-19防疫表現的差異推導出一個系統性的解釋。本文認為，影響到各國染疫人口比率的系統性因素，應該要分別在各國的「政府效能」與「政治穩定」這兩個方面來尋找答案。「政府效能」的高低決定了政府的應變速度、防疫政策的品質、資源動員的效率與政策執行的能力；而「政治穩定」的高低，在民主的國家中，決定了政治上的爭議是否對防疫政策的制訂和執行產生負面的影響，影響到政府的效能是否能夠有效地反映在防疫的表現上，在非民主的國家中，則決定了政府有多大的能力和意願來從事防疫的工作，同樣也影響到政府的效能是否能夠有效地反映在防疫的表現上。因此，「政府效能」和「政治穩定」的程度愈高的國家，感染COVID-19的人口比率愈低。來自2020年162個國家的經驗證據支持了本文的論點。

The most crucial events in 2020 were undoubtedly the political and economic impacts of COVID-19 around the world. However, even in countries with similar political and economic conditions, there have been considerable variations in their epidemic prevention performance. Although there are many arguments that try to explain these variations, few empirical studies have been done to verify their relative explanatory power. Therefore, the goal of this study is to propose a systemic explanation to the variations in countries' epidemic prevention performance. Based on suggestions of both the literature and the experiences of selected representative countries, I argue that the key to understanding the variations lies in both “government effectiveness” and “political stability.” The degree of government effectiveness determines the speed of government response, quality of policy, efficiency of resource mobilization, and capability of policy implementation. The degree of political stability determines to what degree the political controversies negatively affect the formation and implementation of governments' epidemic control policies in democracies, and the extent of the capabilities and incentives that the governments have to devote to epidemic control in non-democracies. Both affect whether a government's effectiveness can translate to its epidemic prevention performance. Therefore, countries that have higher government effectiveness and political stability will have a better overall epidemic prevention performance and thus experience a lower confirmed case ratio. Empirical evidence from 162 countries around the world in the year 2020 supports my argument.