朝向基本防禦的掙扎：後馬可仕時代的菲律賓國防

Struggle for Basic Defence Capacity: The National Defence of the Philippines in the Post Marcos Era

自從「人民力量」（People Power）和平革命於1986年罷黜威權統治的馬可仕（Ferdinand Marcos）總統，菲律賓的國防即因經濟衰退、政治不穩、代議制度不彰、美軍基地關閉、內部叛亂等因素，開始逐漸弱化且落後於其他東協國家（如馬來西亞及印尼）。菲律賓僅有的國防資源幾乎都用於對抗國內伊斯蘭與共產黨游擊隊，海、空軍甚至無法做到最基本的巡邏任務。自從2012年的斯卡博環礁（Scarborough Shoal，中國稱黃岩島）事件以來，北京對於西菲律賓海（West Philippine Sea，中方稱南中國海）的領域主張與作為日趨強硬，使得馬尼拉感受到可觀的戰略壓力與威脅。因此，現任的艾奎諾三世（Benigno Aqunio III）總統於2013年運用該國好轉的經濟，提出史無前例的24項國防現代化方案，期能振衰起弊。惟其海空兵力弱化積弊已久，即便諸項有關計畫得以實現，恐怕仍力有未逮。是故，菲國同時也對美同盟，希望以其外援來強化防禦，且企圖以美軍的再度進駐嚇阻中國，惟效果尚難定論。

Since the People Power Revolution put an end to Ferdinand Marcos' authoritarian polity in 1986, the Philippines has struggled to maintain basic defence capacity. Two decades after its independence in 1946, Manila did for a time maintain a decent defence capability, but several factors, including insurgency and an inwardfocused security view during Marcos' period of martial law governance have contributed to a deterioration of the structure and strength of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). As those factors continue determining the national defence of the Philippines in the post Marcos era, the resumed democratic mechanism also constrains the modernisation of the AFP. With insufficient capability, the AFP has been unable to respond to territorial challenges from neighbouring countries, particularly China. Although such incidents alarmed Manila and highlighted the importance of defence, an improvement of current weak defence situation in order to cope with external threats in the near future may be inadequate with the limited scale of military modernisation projects and potentially shifting focus on Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR). As a result, the Philippines strengthen its alliance with the United States, but the outcomes would be uncertain.