東南亞的外人直接投資與經濟發展

Inward FDI and Economic Development in Southeast Asia

本研究針對1970－2009年間東南亞各國之經濟成長率、外人直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment，FDI）規模，以及外人直接投資來源的觀察結果，探討外人直接投資與經濟發展的關係。根據國內生產總值（Gross Domestic Product，GDP）成長率的時間趨勢圖，大約以1973年、1985年，以及1997年為分界點，將其分成四個時期，包括：一、戰後初期；二、後石油危機期；三、東南亞蓬勃發展期；四、後亞洲金融風暴期。再分別就各時期逐一說明其經濟成長的起落，並觀察對應各時期之外人直接投資的漲跌變化，以檢視兩者的可能關係。一般而言，外資對東南亞的經濟成長有正面的影響，尤其是在1986－1997年的蓬勃發展期，外資也因看好其可能承繼四小龍之崛起而大幅流入，其外人直接投資占全球比重創空前新高。但外資影響的程度，也因國情不同而異，其中，又以馬來西亞與印尼兩國為強烈對比。馬來西亞以發展工業出口導向為主，得到較長期的經濟成長，但也因為沒能即時提升其勞工素質與人力資本，在發展到缺工的階段，必須以引進外勞來因應。而印尼則以開發石油為吸引外資的主要手段，因此在石油危機期間，相較於其他國家有更為明顯的外資投入，但是該國的工業發展卻不若馬來西亞來得蓬勃乃出口其過剩的勞工。印尼早期的成長率雖與馬來西亞不相上下，但即便是在東南亞蓬勃發展期，該國卻僅贏過因為政治紛亂頻仍而經濟表現最不理想的菲律賓。整體而言，東南亞引進外資以圖發展，在蓬勃發展期外資大幅流入，經濟成長也冠全球，但大抵都未能及時提升勞力素質與人力資本，以致於1997以後，受到中國磁吸作用與越南開放的影響，外資回流有限，經濟發展受挫。

By exploring the trends of GDP growth, the scale and sources of inward FDI over the period from 1970 to 2009 in Southeast Asia, we analyze the role of FDI for the area's economic development. According to the trend of GDP growth rate, we divide the area's development history, by three cutting years of 1973, 1985 and 1997, into four periods: (1) Post-World War II period, (2) Post-Oil Crisis period, (3) economic booming period, and (4) Post-Asian Financial Crisis period. Then we analyze the relationship between FDI and the growth rate for each period. In general, the inward FDI has significantly contributed the economic growth of Southeast Asia, especially during the booming period from 1986 to 1997. During this period, being expected to succeed the growth path of Four-Dragon, the FDI flowed quickly into the region and reached a record high. However, the effect of FDI on economic development differs among countries, in which Malaysia and Indonesia contrasted the most. In Malaysia, the export-oriented industries were developed and thus maintained a longer term of growth path. Failing to upgrade in time its labor quality and develop its human capital, it finally encountered the problem of labor shortage and importing foreign workers was inevitable. In Indonesia, being endowed with natural gas and oil made the country the most attractive destination for foreign capital during the oil crisis era. While most of the FDI were headed for the oil-sector, Indonesia had a significantly lower level of industry development than Malaysia, and thus had a surplus of labor to send abroad. With the help of FDI, Indonesia's growth was almost as good as Malaysia in the early stage. However, due to the political instability and the lack of well developed manufacturing sector, Indonesia was only able to maintain a growth level slightly better than Philippine even in the Southeast Asia's booming years. In sum, FDI were induced to Southeast Asia for economic development, and it did succeed in the booming period, making it the highest growth area in the world. However, because of failing to increase its labor productivity and accumulate human capital in time, the growth rate declined sharply after the 1997 crisis and decreased further due to China’s magnetic effect and the opening up of Vietnam economy.