科技創新政策經濟效益評估的可計算一般均衡分析：以臺灣資通訊產業研發投資為例

Application of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis to STI Policy Evaluation: Illustrations of R&D Investment in Taiwan’s ICT Industry

"本文旨在提出一套可應用於衡量我國創新研發資源投入對我國經濟影響的量化評估方法－「臺灣科技政策評估可計算一般均衡模型」(computable general equilibrium for Taiwan science and technology policy evaluation, SciTech CGE)。本文的特色在於將創新研發活動所產生的產業內與產業間研發外溢效果納入考量，使衡量創新研發活動所帶來的經濟效益更為周全。本文發現，相較於其他產業，服務業的創新研發投資對提升其產業內總要素生產力的影響係數最大，同時產業之間的創新研發投資對服務業的外溢效果最高，亦即服務業是享受來自其他產業研發外部性最多的產業。根據本文模擬分析結果顯示，政府新增對資訊通訊科技 (information and communications technology, ICT)產業投資將有助於提升我國未來經濟成長動能、刺激民間投資、增加政府稅收。此外，政府對 ICT 產業的研發投資將提升產業勞動生產力，同時亦拉升勞動對資本要素的相對價格。值得一提的是，ICT 產業研發投資所帶來的生產力與技術進步將減少金融及保險業的勞動需求，隱含由 ICT 產業所帶來的技術革新，將影響金融相關產業的未來經營模式。"

"This research proposes a recursive dynamic CGE model that could be applied to evaluate the economic effects of a science, technology, and innovation (STI) policy. Our model takes into account the innovation spillover effect that occurs not merely within an innovation-producing industry, but also over other industries, and as such it enables us to investigate the STI policy’s impacts comprehensively. Our research results suggest that compared to other industries, R&D investment in the tertiary industry has the largest infiuence on its total factor productivity, and this industry also receives the greatest R&D spillover benefit from other industries. According to our simulation results, government R&D investment into the ICT industry could foster economic momentum, private investment, as well as increased tax revenue. Moreover, labor productivity in all industries will be enhanced by such government R&D investment, resulting in an increase in the relative price of labor over capital. It is worth noting that the labor demand in the finance and insurance industry will shrink due to the progress of productivity and technology, implying that technology evolution may alter this industry’s future business model. "