新賽局？老遊戲？美中戰略競爭的根源性問題

New Game? Old Game? Strategic Competition between the U.S. and China

拜登就任美國總統之後，原本各界預期美中關係將獲得改善。但事實證明拜登總統並沒有改變川普總統與中國進行戰略競爭的政策，甚至更為積極聯合盟友對抗中國，態度更加強硬。此一發展似乎意味著美中戰略競爭將可能持續一段時間。但是，為何美中的戰略競爭沒有隨著總統更換而緩解？是否有其根本性的問題，導致雙方的競爭必然會持續進行？是本文想要探究的重心。本文藉由梳理各界看法，嘗試整理發現美中戰略競爭的根源性問題，來解釋美中戰略競爭為何會持續進行。本文認為美中戰略競爭的起因在於美國對中國崛起可能導致權力移轉的憂慮。而這樣的憂慮來自於意識形態對立、國家利益衝突、地緣政治競爭、領導地位爭奪、文化認知差異等五大根源問題。這些根源性問題並非是在川普以及拜登政府時期才出現，而是在後冷戰時期早就已經浮現，歷經領導者的更替不斷的增強。基此，本文認為美中戰略競爭短期內難以緩解。

After Biden assumed the presidency of the United States, the media and scholars expected that U.S.-China relations would improve. But facts have proved that President Biden has not changed President Trump’s policy of strategic competition with China, and even united his allies against China, taking a tougher posture. It seems that the strategic competition between the United States and China will continue for a long time. However, why has the strategic competition between the United States and China not eased with the change of presidents? Is there a problem with its root causes that the competition between the two parties will inevitably continue? This is the focus of this article. This article sorts out various opinions and tries to find the root problems of the strategic competition between the United States and China to explain why this competition will continue. This article believes that the cause of “Strategic competition” lies in the United States’ worries that China’s rise may lead to the transfer of power. And such worries come from five major root issues: ideological antagonism, conflicts of national interest, geopolitical competition, competition for leadership, differences in cultural cognition, and so on. These root problems did not appear in the Trump and Biden administrations, but have already surfaced in the post-Cold War period, and have been continuously strengthened through the replacement of leaders. Based on this, this article believes that the strategic competition between the United States and China is difficult to ease in the near future.