日本軍事外交政策變革之研究──以安倍政權對美「避險政策」為例

Research on Japan’s Military and Foreign Policy Reform: Taking the Abe Administration’s “Hedging Policy” towards the United States as an Example

隨著中國大陸的軍事力量迅速上升，美國為確保在亞太地區戰略地位主導者的角色，川普政府時期推出新的亞洲政策，與日本共同提出「印太戰略」的構想，美日兩國將聯合意識形態相近的民主國家，來制衡不滿現狀的崛起國家。日本在安倍政府執政的期間，對美採取「避險」策略，在美中兩強之間尋求平衡點，拉攏美國防範來自中國大陸的軍事擴張。另一方面，持續加強與中國大陸的經濟交往，有助於日本的經濟復甦，符合自身國家經濟利益的最大化。日本藉由美日安保體制的庇護，突破了禁止行使集體自衛權和禁止向海外派兵等相關的禁令，從配角轉換成平等夥伴關係。本文透過日本對外避險策略的個案研究發現，在亞太地區國家面對美中兩強的格局框架下，一旦美國要求選邊站的情勢時，日本只能在親美或親中間選擇其一，尤其在高科技產業領域裡，沒有任何的中立空間，避險的對外政策將無法持續推動。

With the rapid rise of China’s military power, the United States, in order to ensure its strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region, launched a new Asian policy during the Trump administration, and jointly proposed the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” concept with Japan. The United States and Japan will unite democracies with similar ideology to check and balance rising countries that are dissatisfied with the status quo. During the Abe administration, Japan adopted a “Hedging” strategy against the United States, seeking a balance between the United States and China, and wooing the United States to prevent military expansion from mainland China. On the other hand, continuing to strengthen economic exchanges with mainland China will help Japan’s economic recovery and is in line with the maximization of its own national economic interests. With the asylum of the U.S.-Japan Security System, Japan broke through the prohibition on the exercise of collective self-defense rights and the prohibition on sending troops overseas, and transformed from a supporting role to an equal partnership. Through the case study of Japan’s foreign hedging strategy, this paper finds that in the Asia-Pacific region, in the face of the U.S.-China situation, once the U.S. require the selection of side stations, Japan can only choose one of the pro-American or pro-middle, especially in the high-tech industry, there is no neutral space, hedging foreign policy will not be able to continue to promote.