外部誘因與民主轉型：以歐盟對摩爾多瓦誘因政策實踐為例

External Incentives and Democratic Transition: EU's Policy toward Moldova

本文主要集中在民主轉型之討論，並將焦點集中在外部誘因如何影響民主轉型，在分析架構上將外部誘因視為影響特定國家民主轉型表現的重要因素。首先，本文選擇以外部誘因做為影響力分析架構，外部誘因可提供具體有效的誘因承諾，據此推動行為國與目標國交流、緩解政治衝突、促進目標國制度修正。其次，從本文案例檢視出發，冷戰結束後的摩爾多瓦面臨國內政治紛亂、領土爭端與國家發展路線之爭三大困境，而歐盟提供的外部誘因對此三大發展困境產生具體影響，在國內政治發展問題上，歐盟價值推廣促使摩爾多瓦進行朝野對話、緩解政治衝突、修正選舉制度與廢除死刑；在領土爭端解決面向上，透過5+2多邊機制與邊界管制協定達成區域穩定、降低軍事衝突可能；在國家發展路線選擇上，與歐盟發展更緊密的合作關係乃是摩爾多瓦基本共識。不過本文也指出歐盟誘因政策之侷限性，俄國在後冷戰時期軍事力量與經濟誘因力量雖不如冷戰時期，然其干預過程中仍有其效應存在，尤以Transnistria駐軍、外債與天然氣供應等為主要變數

Moldova occupies the very focal point of Central and Eastern Europe Countries' democratization after the end of Cold War. Since some of the non-EU countries in this region are still lingering between ''return to Europe'' or ''sovereignty'' approach, Moldova evinces a tendency of adherence to European Union. Democracy promotion strategy is also one of the most important EU's foreign policy goals after its eastward enlargement. Significant efforts are under way to evaluate more the results of one specific version of democracy promotion, namely the effects of external incentives in EU's neighbor area. Political elites of EU select incentives as a dominant strategy when they seek to induce/compel political measures within another regime. Inevitability is the huge imbalance in the overall incentive structure and structurally dependence between EU member states and the individual candidate country. The author argues that, incentives will likely to create impetus as the target countries have more willingness to initiate bilateral interflow and institutional reform. Moreover, with the help of learning process explanation, we may find that regional demonstration effect is another topic worth of paying more attention.