中、美、日亞太競合情勢：非結構性因素分析

Revisiting the Sino-US-Japan Relationship in the Asia-Pacific Region: Non-Structural Factor Analysis

本文主要探討中美日三國在亞太地區競合情勢中的非結構性因素分析。相較於結構性因素，非結構性因素重視各國因為文明累積、歷史記憶、國內價值體系等等來源，造成彼此在自我認知、區域角色定位、或是對外關係認識上的差異。差異不必然會帶來現代國家之間的衝突，但勢必需要更多對於差異內涵的了解以避免衝突的可能發生，而非僅憑藉一種單一的國家性質認定或是物質力量的評估來預測。本文從美國對於亞太國家的定位與區域秩序的理解、中國與日本對於各自文明歷史上的自我認識與對外關係的認識，從而歸納出三種不同的國家主權觀認識。短期而言，中美日之間的衝突難以避免，除非目前佔有物質優勢的美國能夠擺脫圍堵中國的心態、或是中日之間的歷史宿怨能夠因為妥協而化解;長期而言，日本對於美國的威脅將勝於中國對於美國，除非美國能夠不再壓抑日本希冀作為一個正常國家的要求。

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of non-structural factors in the making of Sino-US-Japan relations in the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast with structural factor analysis, a non-structural factor analysis emphasizes the contribution of a country's civilization, historical memory, and domestic value system to one's self-cognition, regional role or particular perspective on foreign relations, all of which constitute one' epistemology different from others. Such difference will not necessarily bring out conflicts or wars among modern states such as China, U.S., and Japan. However, in order to avoid getting involved in the possible conflicts, states need to appreciate each other's differences in terms of epistemology rather than relying on one type of universal definition on one country's national character or its material power. This paper categorizes three types of sovereignty perspective based on U.S. own self-understanding of itself and the world, along with China and Japan's self-views respectively. In the short run, the dispute or conflict between China, and U.S. and Japan is coming, unless the U.S. could give up its containment policy, or Japan could compromise with China to face their old grudge; in the long run, Japan would pose more threat to U.S. than what China might do now unless the U.S. could give up its continuous suppression of Japan's call for being a normal country.