難解的區域衝突──論卡拉巴赫區衝突問題

The Intricate Conflict in Karabakh–An Analysis of an Unsolved Regional Conflict

卡拉巴赫衝突係歐安組織涵蓋區域內，從冷戰結束迄今，尚未解決的三場區域衝突之一。由於歷時久遠，固有「被冷凍的衝突」之稱。不過，此一「被冷凍的衝突」卻不時發生人員傷亡的衝突事件，2016 年 4 月雙方且爆發自 1994 年的停戰協定以來，人員傷亡最為慘重的衝突。衝突發生後，歐洲安全暨合作組織、歐洲聯盟、俄羅斯、美國等相繼呼籲衝突雙方遵守停火協定。歐安組織係此一衝突的主要處理機構，而其明斯克小組共同主席則是主要協調人。但歐安組織歷時二十餘年的協調努力，成效卻極為有限。本文首先分析卡拉巴赫衝突的起源與發展；其次分別探討國際組織(聯合國、歐安組織和歐洲聯盟)、南高加索周鄰國家(俄羅斯、土耳其和伊朗)的相應對策，以及和當事國的關係發展；繼之討論此一衝突的難解之處。最後是本文的結語。

The Karabakh conflict is one of three regional conflicts that have not yet been resolved in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (hence OSCE) region since the end of the Cold War. Due to its prolonged duration, the Karabakh conflict has been called a ''frozen conflict''. However, the Karabakh conflict is not actually ''frozen'' as has been described because it has caused casualties more often than not. In April 2016, the most severe armed conflicts beyween Armenia and Azerbaijan took place, resulting in the most casualties since the 1994 cease fire agreement. The OSCE, the European Union, Russia and the United States have called both parties involved to comply with the cease fire agreement. The OSCE is the main actor to mediate between the conflicting parties, and the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group are the primary mediators. Nonetheless, after more than twenty years of efforts in promoting mediation, the OSCE has made little progress. This paper first analyzes the origins and development of the Karabakh conflict and then explores the corresponding countermeasures adopted by the international organizations (the United Nation, the OSCE and EU) and the countries surrounding the south Caucasus (Russia, Turkey, and Iran) and their relationships with the parties involved in the conflict. Third, the difficulties of reaching a final settlement will also be discussed. The paper ends with a conclusion.