氣候變遷下糧食安全的衝擊：以東南亞國協為例

The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security Example for Association of Southeast Asian Nations

本文透過政治系統論的觀點切入，主要目的是以東南亞區域為研究範圍，探討氣候變遷對糧食安全的影響。綜觀過去之研究，面對氣候變遷對政治系統引發的龐大壓力，卻僅針對既有的因與果進行研究，本文透過政治系統論的觀點，進一步串聯氣候變遷對糧食安全的影響。基本上，本文係從時間和空間的脈絡中，以政治系統論的觀點串聯氣候變遷對糧食安全調適措施的影響。首先，在時間動態下，確定氣候變遷對糧食安全的影響。其次，在空間上，東南亞區域為 2007-2008 年的全球糧食危機時，明顯受到影響的範圍，復以該區域為氣候變遷衝擊下之脆弱區域之一。因此，本文以政治系統論作為研究架構，檢視東協如何回應氣候變遷對糧食安全帶來之影響。此外，本文為詮釋政治系統中的轉換項，以完成東協行動的邏輯，乃透過集體行動觀點補充轉換項的內涵。集體行動觀點說明東協區域受到氣候變遷所導致的共同威脅之需求下，分析行動的誘因與不行動的原因。最後，針對東協的糧食安全行動計畫探討東協在面臨糧食安全問題所回應之氣候變遷的調適措施，已構成政治系統論輸入─轉換─輸出的基本要件，但是針對反饋的部分，卻因為缺乏有效的行動，而落入紙上談兵的困境。

The dynamic of global climate change impact on food security is getting more serious. This thesis try to explicate the crucial issues of climate change impact on food security based on the political system. It tries to describe the vulnerability for Southeast Asia and to explore the ASEAN's adaption measures response food security threat within the region. Furthermore, this study reviews the development of ASEAN actions on food security by collective action. In the black box of system theory, the common threat posed by climate change in the Southeast Asia could be analyzed from the perspective of collective action. The study discovers that ASEAN Strategic Plan on food security still can't attain the feedback effect to response the common threat. Finally, facing the climate change has brought about the common threat, it is imperative to establish common interest to stimulate members to action.