區域石油安全結構中的印度：依賴與風險

India in the Regional Security Structure of Oil: Dependence and Risk

本文從「依賴」與「風險」兩個社會心理學之概念來理解印度在區域石油安全結構中的石油安全戰略。國際能源安全結構中，行為者之間的溝通渠道及石油天然氣的運輸渠道，決定了國家對能源安全的認知。在石油需求不斷增加下，印度政府在 1999 年開放外資進入石油天然氣產業以增加國內生產，但成效不彰。當前國際油價處於低檔價位，加上美國對緬甸及伊朗相繼解除經濟制裁，未來將有更多產油國加入市場，將有助於印度石油進口多元化與海外置產。面對中國「一帶一路」戰略，印度嘗試連結東邊(緬甸)、西邊(伊朗)、北邊(土庫曼)天然氣管線。對印度石油安全戰略而言，未來成為上海合作組織正式成員後，南亞、中亞、中東三方的地緣政治經濟互動將是未來觀察重點。

This article construes India's oil security strategy in the regional security structure of oil from the perspective of two notions: dependence and risk, which are inherent in social exchange relationships. Hence, in the international energy structure, the communication channels, transportation channels, and pipelines among actors can determine states' perception of energy security. With the rising oil demand at home, India attempts to meet its domestic demand and to ensure its oil supply security, through three ways: domestic production (reducing import dependency), overseas production (reducing import dependency), and overseas imports (increasing and spread overall dependency). In terms of oil imports, traditionally, India's oil supply security (near two third) is dependent upon Middle Eastern countries because of lower transportation costs and overseas Indians in the region. Finally, the construction of natural gas pipelines can be the other option to ensure India's oil security. Confronting China's Eurasian energy bridge and ''One Belt One Road'' strategy, India seeks to link its pipelines to the East (Myanmar), the West (Iran), and the North (Turkmenistan). However, under the US' support and influence, among the four pipeline projects, ''Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)'' pipeline project is the only scheme that might be completed in the future. This article concludes that after the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran and the finalization of India's full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2016, the dynamics of the South Asia-Central Asia-the Middle East trilateral relations will become the focus of the observation for comprehending India's oil security strategy in the future.