九合一選舉後中共對台政策與兩岸關係展望

The Prospects on PRC's Taiwan Policy and Cross-strait Relations after 2014 Local Election of Taiwan

2014年底的「九合一」選舉結果，讓各界更加關注未來民進黨的中國政策與習近平的對台政策如何互動？美中台三邊關係的可能變化以及對東亞局勢的影響。北京對台政策的擔憂，主要是對民進黨重返執政的可能性。但背後原因一方面是來自於選民對兩岸經貿進一步深化可能損害台灣在經濟與政治上的自主性；另一方面是台灣民眾對中國的身份認同逐年降低。在習近平的對台政策中，兩岸「和平發展」是對現狀的界定，「反獨促統」為行動方針，「民族復興」則是未來願景。習近平重提「一國兩制」，明確緊縮兩岸對話的範圍，目的在凸顯非默認現狀的立場，刻意上升政策底線，以更清晰的政治語言防止各方誤判，迫使台灣調整立場。此舉無非是以兩岸僵局作為共同預期，試圖去移動對手的「開價點」（offering point），也讓「一中框架」或「九二共識」最終仍是民進黨「最後一哩路」須面對的外部因素。

This paper analyses the modulation of China's Taiwan policy and its effect on the cross-strait relations after 2014 Local Elections of Taiwan. Beijing worried about a potential return to the presidency by the DPP, and Taiwan citizen's identification with China continues to decline. Despite China and Taiwan both sides insist on different interpretation of the issues of both political identity and the future resolution of cross-strait relationship. But there is no indication Beijing will change its baseline policy on the status of sovereignty. Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that cross-strait relations must be based on the foundation of the ''1992 consensus'' and trying to lock Taiwan into the cage of ''one China''. This declaration force the DPP and its presidential candidate in 2012 must re-estimate the cost of sustaining commitment about independent, and deal with China's formula of ''One China'' policy.