論金正恩的內政外交：以政治過程與地緣政治為視角

Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy of the Kim Jong-un Regime: An Analysis from the Perspectives of Political Process and Geopolitics

朝鮮政治過程不能忽視國內政治對外交政策的影響，領導人的價值觀構成國民對政治制度與外交戰略本身的認同。但是從朝鮮的政治過程模式來解釋朝核問題，這種分析方法很難有效。朝鮮核擁有戰略既是地緣政治現實的需要，也是實現「核邊緣政策」對外交涉的外交手段。具體而言，朝鮮的目標是想解決「權力差距」和應對美日韓軍事圍堵，也可能是滿足經濟發展的需要；也可能是調和朝鮮內部對立派系間的分歧的一種手段。從這一點而言，朝鮮的動機本身實際上並不是好戰的，或進攻性的，朝鮮核戰略目標是改變朝鮮半島核部署的不平衡狀態，基本上是防禦性的。

In terms of Pyongyang's decision making process, one cannot neglect the influence of domestic politics on foreign policy; the leader 's values influence the approval of citizens towards North Korea's political system and foreign policy strategy. However, the decision making model may be ineffective in explaining the North Korean nuclear issue. Pyongyang's possession of nuclear weapons does not only stem from geopolitical demands, it also contributes to potential brinkmanship, which serves as a bargaining chip on the negotiation table. Pyongyang may have several potential goals: reduce the power differential with other countries and respond to military isolation by the US, Japan and South Korea; satisfy the need for economic development; and mitigate factional competition in domestic politics. In this perspective, Pyongyang 's motives may not be belligerent or offensive; North Korea's nuclear strategy may be fundamentally defensive, with the aim of adjusting the asymmetric deployment of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.