東北亞區域融合：從中韓到中日韓的可能連動

Northeast Asian Regional Integration: Possibility from CKFTA to CJKFTA

面對當前全球性之FTA 潮流，中、日、韓都各自審視正出現的各種區域合作機制，並努力爭取對己有利的合作架構。在東亞地區，尤其在中韓於2014 年達成FTA 協定後，中國更積極推進包括RCEP 及中日韓自貿區等談判，這些區域貿易談判和TPP非但不完全衝突，日本亦同時參加了TPP、RCEP和CJKFTA磋商。從傳統收益方面來看，中日韓FTA為日本帶來的福利可能高於TPP，但日本對美日同盟、東亞區域主導權、政治安保利益等地緣政治的考量似仍超過對經濟利益的追求。因此，本文將探究日本成為東北亞合作關鍵變數之現實，並嘗試分析其未來可能發展。

In the face of FTA developments across the world, China, Japan and Korea have all made serious considerations towards various regional cooperation mechanisms and made efforts towards negotiating for frameworks that contribute to their respective national interests. In East Asia, particularly after the conclusion of the China-Korea FTA in 2014, China became even more actively involved in the push for negotiations over the RCEP and China-Japan-Korea FTA. Other negotiations not only do not conflict with the TPP, at the same time, Japan also participated in negotiations over the TPP, RCEP and CJKFTA. Although in terms of traditional gains, CJK FTA may yield more benefits for Japan than the TPP, Tokyo's geopolitical considerations for the US-Japan alliance, East Asia leadership and regional security seem to continue to override the pursuit of economic interests. This article examines the reality that Japan has become a key variable in cooperation in Northeast Asia and seeks to analyze its potential development.