台灣住宅抵押貸款終止行為之研究

A Study on the Termination Behaviors of Residential Mortgages in Taiwan

一般而言，關於借款人違約及提前償還行為或不動產抵押債權證券評價之研究，多為個別行為之探討，鮮少針對整個抵押貸款終止之情況，即借款人違約及提前償還行為進行整體分析。本研究以整體角度研究台灣住宅貨款借款人違約及提前清償之行為，採、競爭風險（Competing Risk）模型探討影響個別住宅不動產抵押貸款終止行為之因素。實證結果顯示貸款條件，如貨款成數、還款壓力、及地域上之差異對借款人違約及提前償還之行為有顯著之關係；而總體變數，包括失業率、離婚率及1997年亞洲金融風暴亦對借款人違約行為影響甚大。此外，兩個選擇權變數對借款人違約及提前償還行為，亦為關鍵因素。而地域性對借款人違約行為與借款人提前償還行為呈同向之變動，此結果隱含借款人違約行為及提前償還之行為，並不會因借款人戶籍所在地為都市或非都市而有所差異。

Traditionally, mortgage default or prepayment behaviors are mostly studied individually through non-competing risks models in Taiwan, which have been criticized as misleading. This study is the first to construct a unified model to explore the mortgage prepayment and default behavior in Taiwan. The competing risk model (CRM) is employed to investigate factors influencing mortgage termination. Empirical results show that such elements of mortgage contracts as loan to value (LTV) ratio, payment to income (PTI) ratio, and regional variation are crucial elements to mortgage termination. Some macro factors, such as unemployment, divorce rates, and distinctive decline of macro economy are significant to mortgage default. Furthermore, two option variables, i.e., changes in interest rates and housing prices, are critical to mortgage prepayment and default, respectively.