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篇名
基於熵權探討臺灣營建業上市公司未來營運績效評比模式差異— Entropy-TOPSIS及TOPSIS比較
並列篇名
Discussing the Differences of Future Operating Performance Evaluation Models of Listed Companies in Taiwan Construction Industry Based on Entropy Weight—Entropy-TOPSIS vs. TOPSIS
作者 陳俊合 (Chun-Ho Chen)
中文摘要

TOPSIS係理想解類似度偏好順序評估法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)之簡稱,其權重往往由決策者主觀決定,當決策者對某評估準則主觀意識較強烈時,將導致評估結果偏頗,且其無法預測未來不同方案間評比後可能產生之最優方案。本研究主要貢獻在於以客觀權重之熵權(entropy weight)彌補主觀權重之缺失,比較分析兩模式–客觀權重(Entropy-TOPSIS) 與主觀權重(TOPSIS)之評比結果差異,並以GM(1,1)模型有效預測各評估指標項目之未來值,將所預測之各指標項目未來值提供兩評估模式作未來營運績效之評比,突破TOPSIS評估法無法預測未來最優方案之限制,最後依據實證結果提出相較僅就主觀權重(或等權重)之TOPSIS及現行營運績效更具參考價值之營運政策建議。 本文應用TOPSIS、Entropy-TOPSIS及GM(1,1)模型評比臺灣營建業上市公司之未來營運績效,依據兩評比模式2020年Q4預測值與2019年Q4現況值之評估與分析後發現,現況與預測年度之營運績效皆進入前5名之營建業有太子(2511)及遠雄(5522)等2家。另藉由TOPSIS法,營運績效評比順序排名進步的營建業有4家,退步的則有7家營建業;然若以Entropy-TOPSIS法之評比順序,排名進步的營建業有4家,退步的則有6家營建業,排序保持不變的營建業則有1家。由於兩評比模式對營建業上市公司之評估排序結果有顯著差異,故以TOPSIS評估法對研究對象評比績效順序時,權重之擇定須列為先決條件,以提高模式評估結果之可參佐性。另由熵權法評估2020年Q4預測值得知,對於臺灣營建業營上市公司運績效影響程度之構面依序為總資產(28.46%) > 營業利益(24.19%) > 實收資本(20.50) > 營業收入(15.95%) > 營業成本(5.46%) > 總負債(5.44%),此亦為臺灣營建業上市公司營運政策上營運績效構面之著重順序建議。

 

英文摘要

TOPSIS is the abbreviation of “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution”. Its weight is often determined by the decision maker. When the decision-maker has a strong subjective awareness of an evaluation criterion, it will lead to biased evaluation results. And it cannot predict the best solution that may be produced after the comparison between different solutions in the future. The main contribution of this research is to make up for the lack of subjective weight with the entropy weight of objective weight. Compare and analyze the difference between the evaluation results of the two models-objective weight (Entropy-TOPSIS) and subjective weight (TOPSIS). And use the GM (1,1) model to effectively predict the future value of each evaluation index item. Provide the predicted future value of each indicator item to two evaluation models for comparison of future operating performance. To break through the limitation of TOPSIS evaluation method that can not predict the future optimal plan. Finally, based on the empirical results, it proposes operational policy recommendations that have more reference value than both TOPSIS wtih only subjective weights (or equal weights), and current operational performance. This article uses TOPSIS, Entropy-TOPSIS and GM (1,1) models to evaluate the future operating performance of listed companies in the Taiwan construction industry. According to the evaluation and analysis of the predicted value of Q4 in 2020 and the current value of Q4 in 2019 based on the two evaluation models, it was found that the current and predicted annual operating performances are in the top 5 construction industries, including Prince Housing & Development Corp. (2511) and Farglory Land Development Co., LTD (5522). In addition, with the TOPSIS method, there are 4 construction industries that have improved in the ranking of operating performance appraisal and 7 construction industries that regressed. However, if the order of evaluation by Entropy-TOPSIS method, there are 4 construction industries with a higher ranking, 6 construction industries with a backward trend, and 1 construction industries with the same ranking. Because the two evaluation models have significant differences in the evaluation ranking results of listed companies in the construction industry, therefore, when using TOPSIS evaluation method to evaluate the performance order of the research objects, the selection of weights must be listed as a prerequisite to improve the applicability of the model evaluation results. In addition, we can know by entropy weight method to evaluate the predicted value of Q4 in 2020 that the facets of the impact on the operating performance of listed companies in Taiwan’s construction industry are total assets (28.46%)> operating profit (24.19%)> paid-in capital (20.50)> operating income (15.95%)> operating cost (5.46%) )> Total Liabilities (5.44%). This is also a recommendation for the order of emphasis on the operational performance aspects of the operating policies of listed companies in Taiwan’s construction industry.

 

起訖頁 001-023
關鍵詞 熵權營運績效TOPSISEntropy-TOPSISGM(1,1)理想解Entropy WeightOperating PerformanceTOPSISEntropy-TOPSISGM(1,1)Ideal Solution
刊名 建築學報  
期數 202009 (113期)
出版單位 臺灣建築學會;內政部建築研究所
該期刊-下一篇 運用MMR系統建構智慧綠建築節能管理模式
 

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