金融發展、制度安排與城鎮化－－基於中國三大區域面板資料的實證

Financial Development, Institutional Arrangement and Urbanization: the Experience of China

本文以1990-2011年中國30個省和直轄市的資料，運用誤差修正模型考察了金融發展、制度、城鎮化與經濟增長之間的關係。實證結果表明：一方面，金融規模的擴大有助於加快中國的城鎮化，但是由於儲蓄轉化為投資的效率較低，信貸資金配置不合理，從而延緩了城市化進程；另一方面，金融發展雖然在長期有助於推動中國的城鎮化，但金融發展在短期對城鎮化的作用不顯著。制度變數對城鎮化的影響差異較大：以政府投資度量的政治制度對城鎮化的影響為負，但是東部地區的政府投資推動了其城鎮化；教育制度的完善推動了中國的城鎮化進程，但對東部地區的城鎮化並沒有發揮積極作用；除了西部地區以外，產業結構的完善顯著性地促進了城鎮化；對外開放程度的提高加快了中西部的城鎮化進程，對東部地區的效應不明顯。本文提出在推進中國城鎮化建設過程中，在擴大中國金融規模的基礎上，要提高金融改革的品質，也要制定和完善支持金融發展促進城鎮化建設的各種制度。

The paper examines the relationship between urbanization, financial development and economic growth through VEC (Vector Error Correction) model, which is based on the data of China's thirty provinces and municipalities. The empirical results show that the expansion of financial sector is helpful to accelerate the development of urbanization; however, the low efficiency of transforming savings into investment and mis-allocation of credit funds delay the process of the city. On the other hand, although financial development promotes urbanization in the long run; in the short term, it has no significant effect on urbanization. The effects of institutional variables on urbanization are large. The impact of political system as governmental investment on urbanization is negative, but governmental investment of eastern district promotes urbanization. Complete educational system is also helpful to promote the urbanization; however, the effect of it on eastern district is negative. The perfection of industry structure is significant on promoting the urbanization outside the west area. The improvement of opening to the outside world speeds up the urbanization in the mid-west, it has no obvious effect to the eastern region. Therefore, the paper concludes that we should not only enlarge financial scale, but we should also improve the quality of financial reform in the process of urbanization. Furthermore, we should build up all kinds of institution which contribute to urbanization.