兩岸關係的突破：從風險、信任到和解

The Breakthrough of Cross-Strait Relations: From Risk to Trust, and toward Reconciliation

台灣2004年的總統選舉，陳水扁因槍擊事件影響以些微票數差距險勝。根據過去四年的經驗，未來陳水扁在改善兩岸關係的努力不大。本文主張，兩岸和解的前題是相互信任。除了雙方建立信任的基礎外，打破主權的迷思亦是關鍵因素。同時，美國在兩岸關係的角色扮演上最多是維持現狀而已。兩岸的和解最後還是要靠雙方共同努力：亦即信任營造。本文分為九節。（1）前言；（2）風險的含意；（3）李登輝的風險遊戲；（4）陳水扁的風險策略；（5）「南向政策」的策略；（6）信任的意義及建立；（7）主權的迷思及解析；（8）美國的角色；以及（9）結論。

Due to the incident of gunshot wound, Chen Shui-bian was reelected by marginal votes of less-than-30000 in Presidential Election of 2004. According to the past four- year experiences, the prospect of ameliorating cross-strait relations under Chen's leadership seems to be doomed. This paper argues that the premise of reconciliation between Mainland China and Taiwan is the mutual trust. In addition to the establishment of mutual trust between two sides, one key factor in improving the cross-strait relations is the demystification of the concept of sovereignty. Besides, the role played by U.S. in triangle relations among China, Taiwan and U.S.A is at most to maintain the status quo. In fact, the reconciliation between China and Taiwan depends completely on both sides: trust building. The paper consists of nine parts: (1) Preface; (2) The meaning of risk; (3) Lee Teng-Hei's risk game; (4) Chen Shui-bian 's risk strategies; (5) The strategy of Southward Policy; (6) The meaning and building of trust; (7) The myth of sovereignty and its anatomy; (8) the U.S. role; and (9) Conclusion.