中共不對稱作戰戰略與台灣安全

China's Asymmetric Warfare Strategy and Security across the Taiwan Strait

「不對稱作戰」戰略係指以不對稱的兵力擊敗對手，亦即以我方相對的優點來對付敵人之相對弱點。關於不對稱作戰戰略的運用與戰爭勝負之間的關係，有兩種不同的理論觀點。在研究歷史上何以國力較弱勢一方能夠擊敗國力較強一方時，馬克（Andrew J.R. Mack）認為與交戰雙方的意志力強弱有種大的關聯性，而與物質能力的大小無關。伊凡（Ivan Arreguin-Toft）則認為真正導致弱國戰勝強國的關鍵因素，不在於交戰雙方的能力差距與決心，而在於其所使用的戰略。中共正發展不對稱作戰的戰略與武力，一方面以嚇阻或阻滯美軍對台海衝突的介入，另一方面則是用於對台灣的軍事攻擊，或採取脅迫式的軍事策略（coercive military strategy），亦即以軍事手段迫使台灣屈服於中共的政治條件。台灣在反制中共不對稱作戰時，首先應強化自身的防禦能力，以削弱或化解中共的不對稱作戰戰略下的攻擊戰力，其次應發展針對中共整體武力的不對稱作戰武力，以削弱或癱瘓中共的戰力，最後則以全民國防為基礎，強化人民堅強的反抗意志及武裝動員能力，以嚇阻敵人的進襲。

An asymmetric warfare strategy means to defeat the enemy by using one's strength to attack the opposite's weakness. There have been two different visions of theories on relations between an asymmetric warfare strategy and the outcome of a war. Andrew J. R. Mack has argued that it is the resolve rather than the force that matters in explaining why a weak state can win over a large one. Ivan Arreguin-Toft rather argued that the strategy chosen by the rival states is the decisive factor for the outcome of the war. China has taken the asymmetric warfare strategy and has been preparing for its implementation. Beijing intends to use it as a way to deter or obstruct U.S. involvement in a possible military conflict in the Taiwan Strait and to attack or coerce Taiwan by forces. Taiwan should take several measures to counter off China's asymmetric warfare strategy: increasing its defensive capabilities, developing its own asymmetric warfare strategy and forces, strengthening its people's resistant will and mobilization capability.