結合誘發型市場擴散的新興技術減碳貢獻評估-以臺灣電動車輛發展為例

Integrating the induced market diffusion into the carbon reduction contribution assessment of emerging technology: A case study of Taiwan's electric vehicles development

以最低成本為目標函數的線性規劃模型，探討達成CO_2減量的創新技術組合研究文獻，大多專注在技術學習的擴散研究。但是，若没有建立需求拉升的市場擴散模式，將會產生模型為滿足減碳限制式而無限制採用低碳技術的不合理擴散現象。本研究主要目的是從消費者的投資觀點建立需求拉升的市場擴散曲線，以外生變數方式代入線性規劃模型中，找出達成減碳目標限制下的成本有效的創新技術組合。本研究最大的貢獻是透過情境分析，比較有及無市場擴散曲線的結果差異，證明在線性規劃模型中納入新興技術市場擴散曲線設定的必要性。另外，本研究同時探討影響運輸部門新技術市場擴散的重要因素，包括政府的補助政策及油價波動產生的不同程度市場擴散，對於減碳目標達成的貢獻度影響。研究結果顯示純電動車輛是最具有減碳潛力的技術，高油價對各類型電動車輛具有顯著的需求拉升的影響力。因此，當油價下跌不利於電動車輛的市場擴散時，政府需要提高政策補助幅度，才有可能刺激消費者購買電動車輛的投資決策，進而達成運輸部門的減碳貢獻。本研究成果將有助於政府評估推動電動車輛補助政策的市場擴散成效，以及新興技術達成運輸部門減碳目標的貢獻度。

Most of literature studied the technology-learning diffusion, while exploring the combination of innovative technologies for CO_2 reduction, using the least cost as the objective function of the linear programming model. If there is no demand-pull market-diffusion model, the linear programming model will select fully the low-carbon technologies to meet the restriction of carbon reduction of model, which is an unreasonable phenomenon of emerging technology diffusion. The main purpose of this study is to establish the demand-pull market diffusion curve by the viewpoint of consumer's investment, then input it into the linear programming model to find out the cost-effectively combination of innovative technologies to reach the goal of carbon reduction. The main contribution of this study is to compare the different results with or without market diffusion curves by scenario analysis, and prove the necessity of incorporating emerging technology market diffusion into the linear programming model. In addition, this study explores important factors of influencing the diffusion of emerging technology in the transport sector, including government subsidy policies, the fluctuation of oil prices and impacts on carbon reduction targets. The results show that pure electric vehicles is the most potential technology for carbon reduction, and high oil prices have a significant impact on market demand-pull for various types of electric vehicles. Therefore, while decline of oil prices is not conducive to the diffusion of electric vehicles market, the Government needs to increase subsidy policies, which would be possible to stimulate electric vehicle investment decisions of consumers, and to enhance the carbon reduction contribution of transport sector. The results of this study will help governments assess the effectiveness of market diffusion of electric vehicles induced from the subsidy policy, and evaluate the contribution of reaching carbon reduction targets by emerging technologies in transport sector.