基於因數分析法的中國大陸銀行盈利性研究

The Study of Banks' Profitability in Mainland China Based on Factor Analysis

近年來，金融全球化是大勢所趨，外資金融機構在帶來先進的理念和相對完善的制度的同時也帶來了嚴酷的競爭。而盈利性作為商業銀行的核心指標之一，對它的研究甚至可以追溯到商業銀行的起源。借鑒於計量經濟學的思想，本文運用因數分析法對中國大陸14家銀行2009年的盈利狀況進行了定量分析。以KMO核對總和Bartlett檢驗為標準來篩選作為候選變數的10個財務指標，使篩選後得到的7個變數更合理、更具代表性。運用SPSS軟體，在經過主成分法提取因數、載荷矩陣正交旋轉和因數協方差矩陣檢驗後，模型得出了評價上市銀行「盈利性綜合實力」的三項因數，分別命名為：盈利性因數、投資回報因數和成長性因數。然後通過回歸得到14家銀行三項因數的得分係數並從銀行規模和利潤增長模式兩個不同的角度進行分析。發現盈利性因數中，新近上市銀行因資產品質較高而大多排在前列；投資回報因數中，非國有控股銀行「短小精悍」而更勝一籌；成長性因數中，同樣是非國有控股銀行因資產基數小、品質高而更具增長性。在文章的最後，令方差貢獻率為權重計算出各樣本的綜合得分和排名，並從各行具體經營狀況的角度進行總評。

Financial globalization is the trend of in recent years. It not only brings advanced concepts and relatively complete system but also brings severe competition from the foreign financial institutions. The profitability is one of the core indicators of commercial banks, it can even be traced back to research the origin of commercial banks. This article processes the quantitative analysis of profitability from 14 listed banks in China in 2009. This research is based on the factor analysis and draws lessons from econometrics idea. For making reasonable and the selected and representative variables, the KMO and Bartlett test as the standard to screen for the ten candidate variables are used. The proposal model used the SPSS software, through the test of principal component extraction factor, load matrix orthogonal rotation and factor covariance matrix, and got three factors of banks' comprehensive and strength of profitability, named profitability factor, return on investment factor and the growth factor. This research carried out the regression analysis and got the score of three factors of the 14 banks. In addition, an analysis of the banks are based on the standpoint of banks' size and their profit growth model. It is discovered that the newly listed banks with higher asset quality and come out top in the profitability factor, the non-state banks are superior in investment return factor and their own much ability to grow even through their small asset base and high quality in growth factor. Finally, this research calculated the comprehensive score and then ranking of the sample with variance contribution rate weight and make a brief analysis of the banks.