都市街道空間情境與搶奪犯罪危險機率研究──以台灣某城市為例

Vulnerability of Snatch Thefts and Environmental Situations-Case Studies on a City in Taiwan

The study focuses on environmental situations of temporal and spatial influences on snatch thefts that occurred over a six-year period in a city in Taiwan. Space Syntax method has been adapted to produce an effective pedestrian predicting model to tease out the crucial data of projected number of potential victims on each street segment. Research results show that areas near intersections among boundary less busy segments of commercial main streets, entry segments of both commercial secondary streets and residential main streets with higher pedestrian flows turn out to become rather vulnerable to snatch crime during the dawn period of 0:00~6:00 am. Moreover, the vulnerable areas mentioned above would even worsen when they further exhibit the lack of inter-visibility. Findings from this research indicate that snatch crime tends to occur in areas with poor inter-visibility and in between those two extremes of pedestrian flow from medium low busy commercial streets to residential entry streets where one finds relatively higher number of targets present yet with little guardianship in the area. 本文有關街道時空情境與搶奪犯罪發生機率之研究，係以台灣某城市之六年刑案記錄，結合由空間型構數位分析（Space Syntax）為主所推演出各路段之行人母數預測模式，以釐清前述有關街道情境與搶奪犯罪傾向之議題。初步研究結果顯示，午夜零點至凌晨六點期間，於較不繁忙之主要商業街道末端，與人潮稍多之次要商業街道入口段，及住宅區主要街道入口段等三類交互連結之路段，均呈現較高之街道搶奪犯罪危險機率。尤其，當前述路段又缺乏正門對正門之互視關係時，其發生搶奪機率為最高，成為最危險之路段。由此研判，位於次要商業街道人潮次高與住宅區入口街道人潮稍多之間的路段，當又缺乏互視關係，則一方面因缺乏有效之行人自然監控機制；另方面於深夜時刻又仍有夠多被害者出現，以致成為搶奪犯罪危險機率最高之時空情境。