東南亞國協的貿易軸心與幅緣型態——以電子業、製鞋業為例

Hub-Spoke Trade Patterns in ASEAN: Lessons from Electronics and Footwear Sectors

The emergence of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015 has brought great attention to its trade and market potential. This paper adopts the hub-ness measure (HM) to analyze the hub-spoke trade pattern changes and differences of the electronics and footwear sectors in ASEAN. A Singapore-Malaysia-Thailand tri-hub pattern was found in the electronics industry. Singapore was the leading hub, with Malaysia and Thailand on the rise. Similarly, in the footwear industry, an Indonesia-Singapore-Malaysia tri-hub pattern has evolved, as the importance of Singapore has been diminishing and the roles of Indonesia and Malaysia have strengthened. We also find that the existing China-Japan twin hub pattern will no longer hold now that ASEAN is becoming more integrated. If ASEAN is aggregated as a whole, China still maintains its leading hub status in the electronics industry and ASEAN moves up to surpass Japan as a possible second hub. On the other hand, the leading hub status of China has declined in the footwear industry, while ASEAN is close to Japan for the role of second hub. 東協經濟共同體（AEC）於2015設立後，引起世人對其未來可能的市場與投資的關注。本文採用核心指標衡量（HM）來分析東協地區電子業與製鞋業的貿易核心型態的改變與產業差異。在電子產業呈現了新加坡－馬來西亞－泰國三核心的貿易型態；其中新加坡持續領先但馬來西亞與泰國也漸漸崛起。製鞋業也呈現類似的印尼－新加坡－馬來西亞三核心的貿易型態，但新加坡的重要性逐漸下降伴隨著印尼與馬來西亞的重要性逐漸增加。我們同時也發現在面對一個更整合的東協時，現有亞洲的中國－日本的雙核心貿易型態不再保有。如果視東協為一個單獨的國家，那麼在電子產業中，中國能持續擁有其領先地位，整合的東協將超越日本成為第二大貿易核心；另一方面，中國在製鞋業的重要性漸減並伴隨著崛起的東協逼近日本的貿易核心型態。