川普能重構亞洲權力平衡？——解析美國印太戰略的虛實

Can Trump Reconstruct the Balance of Power in Asia? An Analysis of the ＂Indian Pacific Strategy＂ of the United States

本文藉由現實主義的視角探討美國川普政府提出的印太戰略的緣起、內涵與具體的戰略行動，以理解美國為何要提出印太戰略的理由。本文認為，川普政府提出「自由開放的印度－太平洋戰略」作為替代歐巴馬政府的「亞太再平衡」戰略，尋求將日本、澳洲、印度與東南亞國協納入一個以美國為主的戰略體系之中，其目的主要是針對中國大陸試圖改變亞洲權力平衡。就美國官員的論述中可知「印太戰略」將外交、經濟與軍事面向的政策工具置於其中，因此「印太戰略」可解讀為是美國對抗中國的「大戰略」。此一戰略已經有具體的行動正在著手進行，包括美中貿易戰以及強化與台灣的合作關係。但美國的印太戰略仍有其限制，包含對印太地區基礎建設投資不足，導致美國盟友對於美國對抗中國的決心產生懷疑。而且各國對於與中國相處各有盤算，顯然美國的「印太戰略」尚無法形成真正的「亞洲北約」。但美國啟動「印太戰略」的機制後，即啟動與中國的貿易戰，強化與盟友（包含台灣在內）的軍事合作、重整美軍軍容並強化在亞洲的兵力部署，可能導致與中國的核武現代化競賽。本文之結論是印太戰略的舉措雖可讓美國維持在亞洲的權力，但軍備競賽引發的後遺症卻可能是將亞洲拖入一場「新冷戰」。 This article explores the origin, connotation and practical strategic actions of the ?Free and Open India-Pacific Strategy? (FOIPS) proposed by the Trump administration of the United States from a realist perspective to understand why the United States should propose the Indian-Pacific strategy. we argue that the Trump administration has proposed the ?India-Pacific Strategy? as a substitute for the ?Strategy of Rebalancing? (or pivot) proposed by President Obama. We find a situation that FOIPS is to seek Japan, Australia, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASAN) to support the US's Asian strategic system that purpose to counter China's efforts to change the balance of power in Asia. As US officials are concerned FOIPS is a means that use diplomacy, economy and military power to achieve policy goals. So it can be regarded as the ?Grand Strategy? to against China. And some FOIPS actions have been taken, including the US-China trade war and strengthening cooperation with Taiwan. However, the US FOIPS still has some restrictions, including insufficient investment in infrastructure, which has led US allies to doubt the US's determination to against China. Moreover, all countries have different plans for getting along with China. Obviously, the FOIPS cannot form a true ?Asian NATO.? However, after the United States launched the ?India-Pacific Strategy,? it began a trade war with China and strengthened military cooperation with its allies (including Taiwan), reorganized the US military and strengthened its deployment in Asia. As a result, it may lead to Arms race between the United States and China. The conclusion of this paper is that although the ?Indian Pacific Strategy? may allow the United States to maintain its power in Asia, the arms race between the United States and China may be dragging Asia into a ?new cold war.?