當前國際戰略理論——發展與前景

Current International Strategic Theory: Development and Prospects

當前國際戰略理論是因理想所驅動，抑或利益為其動因？戰略原為擘劃如何在戰爭當中贏得勝利之藝術，由於核武之出現，戰略從贏得戰爭轉變為避免戰爭並且成為如何維護國家安全之理論。國際戰略也從規劃如何維持世界秩序到維繫國家優勢，從作為政策與指導原則到學界重要研究領域。本文則旨在對於當前國際戰略理論進行總結性評估，期待回答下列三道問題：冷戰結束到九一一事件，國際戰略發展特點為何？九一一事件後國際戰略有何學術與政策轉向？當前國際戰略有何特徵？最後為結論，試圖探究當前國際戰略理論之發展與前景。冷戰時期，美國運用對其有利的政軍優勢確保力量不均衡並建立穩定的國際秩序，冷戰結束至九一一事件前，美國的國際戰略仍抱持「美國領導」的優勢戰略，認為國家的繁榮與和平之基礎在於美國的「普遍」民主與自由主義價值觀，以及開放經濟與尊重人權，美國有其義務運用軍事權力維護自由的國際秩序。九一一事件後，美國面臨後進國挑戰以及牽扯至諸多國際性問題，川普勝選也代表民粹主義的崛起，他重新界定美國的安全利益，使美國擺脫海外的衝突而不直接影響美國安全，也讓其他國家的盟國感到不安，認為「美國治世」將不復存在，甚至美國已出現「即席戰略」，使得雙邊、零和交易主義在川普思想中勝過戰略考量。 The purpose of this article is to summarize the current international strategic theory and look forward to answering the following three questions: What is the characteristic of international strategic development after the end of the Cold War to September 11 attacks? What are the academic and policy changes in the international strategy after the September 11 incident? What are the characteristics of the current international strategy? Finally, the conclusion is to try to explore the development and prospects of current international strategic theory. Before the end of the Cold War until the September 11th attacks, the United States' international strategy still held the dominant strategy of ?American leadership.? After the September 11 incident, the United States faced the challenge of ?the rise of the rest? and involved many international issues. Donald Trump's victory also represented the rise of populism. He redefines the security interests of the United States and frees the United States from overseas conflicts without directly affecting US security. It also makes the allies of other countries feel uneasy, that ?the United States will rule the world? will no longer exist, and even the United States has emerged as an ?emergent strategy,? making bilateral and zero-sum traderism outperform strategic considerations in Trump's thinking.