台北市與新北市各行政區之淹水損失地圖──空間分量特徵價格回歸之評估

Map of Flooding Loss in Each District of Taipei City and New Taipei City: Evaluation of Spatial Quantile Hedonic Price Method

本研究主要目的是將國家災害防救科技中心，呈現台北市及新北市特定降雨強度下的淹水範圍及淹水高度，乃與文獻上首度統整採用特徵價格法結合空間迴歸模型與空間分量迴歸模型，將淹水潛勢圖轉換成淹水損失地圖。分析資料涵蓋兩城市2012年8月至研究進行時可擷取的最新2015年10月，台北市共計58,962筆、新北市為137,471筆的內政部實價登錄房產交易資料。評估結果顯示，就兩個城市整體行政區而言，行政區中以70分量代表的高區位房價、50分量代表的中區位房價及30分量代表的低區位房價，其中以內湖區、信義區、萬華區、八里區、淡水區、樹林區以及泰山區有最多不同等級房價之房屋類型的淹水損失。至於淹水損失金額的大小，除台北市內湖區的公寓及新北市的透天厝，呈現低房價的損失大於高房價外，其他的房屋類型在這兩個城市一致的呈現，一旦有淹水損失，屬於高區位房價的房屋類型均比低區位房價的淹水損失來得大，此一結果亦適時的反應使用空間分量迴歸模型預期下的結果。 The purpose of this study is to transform the potential inundation maps prepared by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction in Taiwan, which display the flooding area and height of flooding, into the flooding loss maps, measured in monetary term. The hedonic price method with combination of spatial regression model is employed for such purpose. The records of housing prices for Taipei City and New Taipei City since the first record in August 2012 to October 2015 from “Real Estate Actual Price Registration” prepared by Ministry of Interior of Taiwan are included. There are 58,962 and 137,471 housing price records for Taipei and New Taipei City respectively. Taking 70 percentile, 50 percentile, and 30 percentile of housing prices to represent the high, median, and low price for all district in theses two cities, distict of Neihu, Cinyi, amd Wanhua in Taipei City and district of Bali, Tamsui, Shulin, and Taishan in New Taipei City have the most types and price levels of housings with flooding loss. As with the magnitudes of flooding loss, except apartment in district of Neihu and town house in all districts of New Taipei City, all types of housings with all levels of prices consistently show the high flooding loss for the housing with high prices. The results are under expectation as the employment of spatial quantile regression model.