食物供應鏈隻存活期間分析：APEC國家生產製程產品別之驗證

Analysis of Duration in Food Supply Chain: Evidence from Production Stages between the APEC Countries

本研究首先透過Kaplan-Meier存續率估計法來探討APEC會員國在食物供應鏈中製程產品別於1980－2013年間，進、出口端貿易存續變化與差異，亦經由Cox TVC及panel logit模型來探究影響進口端貿易存續穩定性的決定因素，最後使用panel logit固定效果模型之製程產品別，透過「國別與消費交乘項」的分析，以比較國與國之間貿易存續的穩定性程度。由實證結果顯示，不論進、出口端皆以中間財貿易的存續率最高且穩定，最終財次之，而原料最低且不穩定。另外，由Cox TVC與panel logit模型實證結果顯示，在全樣本、中間財及最終財上，「消費」增加有利於貿易存續穩定性。而最後由panel logit固定效果模型的實證結果得知，在製程產品別上，消費增加有利於加拿大貿易存續的穩定性且程度最大，而日本則其不利的狀況特別明顯。 We attempt to generalize the differences of survival rate and duration of import trade and export trade in the food supply chain between the countries of APEC from 1980 to 2013 through Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In addition, this study is conducted with Cox TVC model and panel logit model to clarify which independent variables would influence import trade stability. We also include interaction variable of countries and consumption among the panel logit fixed effect model in order to compare the trade stability in different counties. Our results reveal that whether import trade or export trade, processed goods is the most stable category which has the higher survival rate than final goods and primary goods in food supply chain. According to the findings of Cox TVC model and panel logit model demonstrate consumption growth is generally positively related to trade stability on the whole samples, processed goods and final goods. Major findings of panel logit fixed effect model including the interaction variable of countries and consumption contain the following: Canada has the most stable trade with consumption growth. However, the trade stability of Japan is negatively associated with consumption growth.