應用預期價格與風險分析探討台灣稻米價格政策

The Analysis of Price Support Policy and Risk in Taiwanese Rice Market

本文將以有界價格模型及內生轉換模型為基礎，結合理性預期與生產者風險理論，建立台灣稻米市場模型，並對此市場模型進行估計，再以估計結果為基礎檢定稻農風險態度與分析政策效果。結果顯示，台灣稻農的風險態度有DARA之傾向，農政單位可藉影響農民財富（所得）水準之措施，達成其政策目標。在歷年保證價格制度之下﹐政府以龐大財政支出為代價吸納市場價格風險，藉以換取國內稻米市場的穩定。但近年來在經貿自由化之趨勢下，政府當局將被迫削減國內農業支持水準，以符合WTO規範。未來若逐步降低保證價格水準或取消此制度時，稻農勢必面對較高的市場價格風險，此將對其產出水準有負面之影響。但若在調降保價水準的同時，透過直接給付之方式補償稻農因政策改變所造成之損失，透過財富效果將使得產量提升。因此在降低保價水準與直接給付政策同時實施之下，稻農產出水準為提高或降低則視此二效果何者較大而定。因此未來農政單位在政策制訂之際，必須對政策所造成之財富效果有所認知，才能使政策達到預期之成效。 The impacts of price support scheme in the Taiwanese rice market are examined by using a bounded price variation model. The model is developed and estimated to make a linkage between price support program and risk perceptions of producers. The estimated model is used to simulate market effects of price support scheme. The results show that the rice growers exhibit decreasing absolute risk averse. The decrease in price support level will have negative impact on the rice production. The increase in farmers wealth will, on the other hand, have positive impact on production level. In the future, the government might want to decrease the price support level and use the direct payment scheme to subsidize the farmers as well, then the net effect will depend on which impact is larger.