基因轉殖作物對台灣畜產部門影響之經濟分析

The Economic Analysis of the GMOs Impacts on Taiwan’s Animal Industry Sector

基因轉殖作物（Genetically Modified Organisms, GMOs）的發明是農業生產技術的一大進步。此項新生產技術的採用將會降低作物的生產成本或增加其單位產出，進而創造更多的福利，然而基因轉殖產品的引用卻同時產生了許多外部性問題。經由政府機關的管制與GMOs產品的標示可解決這些外部性問題，但是人類是否需要這些基因轉殖產品則應由市場機能來決定。綜合國內外文獻發現，尚未有任何文獻評估GMOs的產品對畜產部門的影響，而台灣的畜產生產成本中，飼料成本幾乎佔了總生產成本的半數以上，而飼料成本中的主要成份玉米與大豆則多是國外進口，當國外採用GMOs的生產技術來生產這些產品時，將對雜糧的進口量與價格有所影響，因此GMOs生產技術的變動所導致的飼料成本的變動將進一步影響台灣的畜產品生產。本研究旨在應用台灣農業部門模型來分析當台灣全面進口基因轉殖玉米與大豆時，對台灣畜產部門的產量、價格以及福利等經濟的影響。實証發現在需求不變下，豬、雞、鴨、鵝及雞蛋的產量因進口基因轉殖玉米與大豆而分別上升了1.65％，3.63％，1.73％，0.93％及1.85％，而畜產品的價格因供給線右移下降了2.11％至6.29％之間；消費者剩餘增加了$3,718百萬元，生產者剩餘增加了$430百萬元，整體社會福利則增加了$4,146百萬元。另外若考慮台灣未來因人口增加而導致畜產品需求增加時，若不允許進口基因轉殖的玉米及大豆，則國內畜產品的價格會因需求的增加而上升，此時國外的畜產可能進口至台灣。因此，在考慮台灣基因轉殖產品的課題時，不只應該考慮其所可能產生之外部性問題，更應考慮市場上之需要。 The innovation of Genetically Modified Organisms(GMOs) is a major progress of agricultural productivity. Production cost could be reduced or crop yield could be increased as the GMO production technology is adopted, therefore, social welfare is improved. However, there exits lots of externalities when GMO products are produced. The best strategy to solve these externalities is to test these GMO products through government regulation and then label them when they are sold in a market. Taiwan imports lots of grain products from world market. The import quantity as well as price will be affected through world market as the production technology of GMO product is adopted. The feeding cost of Taiwan’s animal industry will be reduced; therefore, the production quantity, price, and welfare of Taiwan’s animal sector will be influenced. The purpose of this study is to apply the Taiwan Agricultural Sector Model(TASM) in the estimation of the economic impacts of GMOs on Taiwan’s animal industry sector. The simulation results show that the production quantity for pork, chicken, duck, geese, and egg increase 1.65, 3.63, 1.73, 0.93, and 1.85% respectively as Taiwan imports the GMOs corn and soybeans. The prices of these products drop about 2.11 to 6.29%. Therefore, the consumers and producers’ surplus is increased by $NT 3,718 and 430 million and result a $NT 4,146 million increasing in total social welfare. However, if Taiwan does not import the GMOs corn and soybeans, the prices of animal products will increase due to population growth in the next 10 years. Such situation may allow Taiwan imports animal products from foreign countries because of disadvantage of animal production in Taiwan. It implies that Taiwan may need the GMOs products from the view of market.