都市化與氣候暖化關係之研究——以台北都會區為例

The Study of Relationship Between Urbanization and Climate Warming - An Example of Taipei Metropolitan Area

本研究主要探討台北都會區都市化與氣候暖化之關係，實證分析是否都市化會造成氣溫的上升。本研究實證分析部分使用地理資訊系統（GIS）之內差法（interpolation）和空間分析方法，以及迴歸分析使用panel data之固定效果模型等工具；內插法之結果得到台北都會區年平均氣溫自1996年至2006年約上升1℃，有些地區甚至上升約2℃，且上升之溫度範圍有擴大的趨勢，呈現放射狀的溫度分布，此與都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態類似。使用空間分析方法則證實了一地人口數的增加會造成該地氣溫上升，並且也發現近來人口數多增加在都市外圍地區，這與上述氣溫分布和都市蔓延之放射狀發展形態也相符合。迴歸分析結果顯示人口數對於氣溫有相當大之正相關，耕地面積、工廠面積對氣溫則呈現負相關，可見得擁有廣大綠地以及較低密度發展之工業使用可以降低區域之氣溫，減緩氣候暖化。另外在各鄉鎮市區固定效果估計量方面，可以歸納出若一地區有廣大的公園、綠地、或是有河川流域的經過，對於降低當地氣溫有明顯的幫助。因此必須重視都市化對氣候暖化的影響，以及如何防止氣候暖化的發生。 In this study, we research the relationship between urban sprawl and climate warming in Taipei metropolitan area. We analyze empirically whether the developed shape of urban sprawl causes rising temperatures. The empirical analysis in this study is based on the Interpolation Method and Spatial Analysis of GIS, and the regression analysis is based on the Fixed Effect Model of Panel Data. The yearly average temperature increased about 1℃ to 2℃ in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1996 to 2006. Furthermore, the range of the increasing temperature has been trending upward and it reveals a radial distribution; it is similar to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl. By using Spatial Analysis, we prove that the temperature of an area increases when the population rises and we find that the population rises in most of the peri-urban areas. It also answers to the radial developed shape of urban sprawl and the distribution of the temperature as above. The result of using the regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between population and temperature, and a negative correlation between the farmland areas and the temperature so that if there is a big green space, it can decrease the temperature in an area, and reduce climate warming. From the fixed effect estimation, we conclude that it helps decrease the temperature in an area where there is a big park, big green space or where a river passes through. The time trend of the fixed effect estimation indicates that the climate in the Taipei metropolitan area will be getting warm as time goes by. Therefore, we must take into account the influence of urban sprawl to climate warming, and how to prevent climate warming.