購屋者住宅投資風險衡量之研究——風險值之應用

A Study of Evaluating Investment Risk on House Market

自民國79年來房地產市場大多處於低迷狀態，在政府不動產利多之政策下，對房地產稍有激勵作用。而在理財意識高漲之今日，眾多投資工具中，高報酬之預期之房地產仍受投資者的喜好。然此，伴隨著高風險而來，風險的存在是不可避免的事實。此仍隱含著一般人對報酬追求最大為目的，而非調整風險後之報酬，原因是風險衡量之困難性。風險應如何衡量，尤其是房地產之投資風險，如何在實務中計算？其與其他投資工具（如證券市場，其他衍生性金融商品）之衡量方式是否相同？而近日衡量一般金融性資產之風險值（Value at Risk; VaR）之量化方法，應用在房地產投資風險之衡量中之適用性將如何？因此，本文以台北市預售屋為研究標的，以購屋者角度進行風險值評估。本文之目的為探討國內各種衡量風險值方式之合理性，應用各種衡量風險值方式，估算不動產投資風險值，並計算出風險調整後報酬率，評估購屋投資之可行性，並與購屋者可投資之其他資產工具（如營建類股股票）作一比較，以為投資者最佳理財之評估參考。 Since 1990 the real estate market at downside continuously, the slowly recovery due to the government stimulate-upside policy. The investment of real estate still the preferred tools for gaining more profit. Earning higher real estate return that responded higher risk. How to hedge with risk in real estate investment has several paper research on it nation and national. The goal to gain higher return, not the risk-adjusted-return, due to the difficulty of risk measuring, especially on the real estate market. How to estimate the investment risk on real estate market? Has the measuring approach any difference with the other assets or derivatives? How to apply the Value at Risk (VaR) to measure the investment value at risk on House market. Our study focus on the demand side to evaluate risk from the pre-sale house investment; compute the risk-adjusted return, and compare with other (eg.stock return of construction) investment tools.