開放進口與政府稻米庫存策略之探討

Analyses on the Market Openness and the Adjustment of Official Stocks Program upon Taiwan's Rice Market

本文主要目的在探求，因應WTO （GATT烏拉圭回合）農業規範開放稻米進口時的最適政府稻米庫存策略。文中首先以有效重分配假說為基礎，應用政策偏好函數與顯示性偏好理論推估政策權數；其次結合所估之政策權數建構最適稻米政策模型，以尋求最適政府稻米庫存策略，進而模擬政策改變後對稻米產業之經濟影響。實證結果顯示：（1）就稻米生產結構而言，供給缺乏彈性，隱含稻米業生產調整的僵固性及因應市場自由化之調適能力相當薄弱；（2）1974年以前稻農之政治影響力較低，使稻米政策較偏向消費者，其後稻農之政治影響力有提高現象，使稻米政策越來越偏向生產者。但未來開放稻米進口，使稻米價格下跌，稻農政策權數將會下跌；（3）若採用日本模式進口稻米，在收購價格不變及追求衝擊程度最低假設下，1997-2000年四年期間，最適政府稻米庫存量每年分別為82、71、61及51萬公噸。 The objectives of the current study are to analyze the rice market, to suggest the optimal levels of rice stocks which will minimize the impacts under trade liberalization, and to evaluate the possible impacts under such policy adjustments. There are several conclusions we can derive from the empirical analysis results: 1. The estimated policy weights of rice producers were relatively low before the 1974, comparing to other pressure groups, but showed an increasing trend during the past forty years. It was estimated, however, the weights of producers would decrease gradually in the future due to trade liberalization. 2. According to the optimal control model, the suggested optimal levels of rice stocks are 817, 710, 607, and 514 thousand metric tons each year during 1997-2000. 3. The policy simulation results revealed that the second crop of rice production in Taiwan will become insignificant in the future under trade liberalization, and the official purchase program will be adjusted to support mainly on the first crop.

The objectives of the current study are to analyze the rice market, to suggest the optimal levels of rice stocks which will minimize the impacts under trade liberalization, and to evaluate the possible impacts under such policy adjustments. There are several conclusions we can derive from the empirical analysis results: 1. The estimated policy weights of rice producers were relatively low before the 1974, comparing to other pressure groups, but showed an increasing trend during the past forty years. It was estimated, however, the weights of producers would decrease gradually in the future due to trade liberalization. 2. According to the optimal control model, the suggested optimal levels of rice stocks are 817, 710, 607, and 514 thousand metric tons each year during 1997-2000. 3. The policy simulation results revealed that the second crop of rice production in Taiwan will become insignificant in the future under trade liberalization, and the official purchase program will be adjusted to support mainly on the first crop.