颱風警報發布項目與旅遊目的地遊客數量變化影響之研究

Applying the item on typhoon warning report to predict the change of visitor population in tourism destination

研究目的在於了解不同的颱風特徵情形，對於遊客數量變化上的影響。研究選定太平山國家森林遊樂區為探討的案例，從中央氣象局以及交通部觀光局提供的颱風警報資料以及遊客人數統計，擷取2003到2012年的相關資料，進行區別分析。研究結果發現颱風強度以及數量對遊客數量變化是重要的影響因素，且遊客數量變化會依據不同的颱風類型，呈現不同的變化情形。對於學術研究上建議在探討颱風對遊客數量變化時，應將強度、數量以及雨量等相關情形納入考量，而颱風警報單應補充有關雨量的預測資料。在實務應用上發現旅遊目的地的營運管理，可以運用中央氣象局發布的颱風警報資訊，做為旅遊目的地在因應颱風來襲時事先做好準備與規劃的工具。 The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the characteristics of typhoon and the change of visitor population. Taipingshan National Forest Recreation Area was chosen as a subject. Data were collected from public open data of Typhoon Warning Report and Tourism Yearly Statistics Report. The analysis conducted discriminant analysis using the data during 2003-2012. The result showed a significant effect of typhoon intensity and monthly cumulative number on change of visitor population. It was suggested that tourism destination manager could apply the typhoon warning report as preparation for the impact of typhoon.