交通可及性與生態旅遊區的消長：雙區模型

Accessibility and the Vicissitude of Ecotourism: A Two-Region Model

本文在兩個資源存量與交通便利程度不同之兩個生態園區下，建構多廠商經營之生態旅遊模型，分析生態旅遊與自然資源之間的動態平衡。進一步分析提升個別園區之交通可及性或調降其經營管制措施，對兩個園區均衡造成衝擊。我們首先證明兩個園區都可能有高低資源存量兩種均衡。其次，（1）若對相對已開發之交通便利但資源存量低的園區，進一步的開發，無論是透過改善交通抑或增加經營者，其資源必然下降，而且在低存量前提下，均衡的旅遊人數將下跌，若持續開發則嚴重者導致旅遊資源枯竭的困境。反之，（2）若對於高資源存量但交通可及性差的園區，改善其交通或許可更多的經營廠商，則在其為極可能為高均衡的前提下，雖然資源存量會降低，但旅遊人口將增加。但是對於已經高開發之資源低存量園區，短時間旅遊人口的突然下跌，卻使資源存量得以恢復增加，長期而言旅遊人口將可以恢復到受波及時的水準之上。 In this paper we establish an ecotourism model to analyze the dynamic equilibrium between two ecological areas, each endowed with a different level of ecological resource and degree of accessibility. The comparative static is conducted to illustrate how improving one region's accessibility and/or de-regulation on firms will affect the equilibrium, especially its spillover impact on the other region. First of all, we prove that for each region there exist two stable equilibra: one characterized with low level of resource stock and fewer visitors, the other with high resource stock and more visitors. Secondly, for a relatively well-developed region, which is by definition more accessible but with less ecological resource, a further development will certainly decrease its level of resource. More importantly, if the region is already at low equilibrium, not only the number of visitors will decrease, the development may end up a complete depletion of its resource. On the other hand, for the less-developed region which is in general having higher resource stock with less accessibility, a further development will also reduce it resource stock, and at the high equilibrium, which is very likely the initial position for a less accessible area, it will be accompanied with an increase in the number of tourists. The spill-over impacts on the other more developed region are worth noting. That is, in the short-run, its number of visitors will decrease accompanied with an accumulation of its ecological resource, and thus in the long-run will lead to a higher level of resource stock and more visitors than before.

In this paper we establish an ecotourism model to analyze the dynamic equilibrium between two ecological areas, each endowed with a different level of ecological resource and degree of accessibility. The comparative static is conducted to illustrate how improving one region's accessibility and/or de-regulation on firms will affect the equilibrium, especially its spillover impact on the other region. First of all, we prove that for each region there exist two stable equilibra: one characterized with low level of resource stock and fewer visitors, the other with high resource stock and more visitors. Secondly, for a relatively well-developed region, which is by definition more accessible but with less ecological resource, a further development will certainly decrease its level of resource. More importantly, if the region is already at low equilibrium, not only the number of visitors will decrease, the development may end up a complete depletion of its resource. On the other hand, for the less-developed region which is in general having higher resource stock with less accessibility, a further development will also reduce it resource stock, and at the high equilibrium, which is very likely the initial position for a less accessible area, it will be accompanied with an increase in the number of tourists. The spill-over impacts on the other more developed region are worth noting. That is, in the short-run, its number of visitors will decrease accompanied with an accumulation of its ecological resource, and thus in the long-run will lead to a higher level of resource stock and more visitors than before.