國內旅遊需求、旅館經營和經濟發展之關係探討

The Relationship between Internal Tourism Demand, Hotel Performance, and Economic Development: A Case Study of Taiwan

In order to understand the relationships between the demand for internal tourism, hotelperformance, and Taiwan’s macro-economy, this paper uses internal tourist arrivals, hotelrevenue, and personal disposable income as proxy variables to compare theirco-integrations and Granger causalities with quarterly data. Internal tourism comprises both domestic and inbound tourism sectors as defined by United Nations World TourismOrganization. For distinguishing different patterns of internal tourism, two national andthree regional internal tourism models were constructed. The former included standardand international hotels, and the latter selected the famous tourist attractions of Sun MoonLake, Alishan, and Kenting. Regardless of whether they are luxury or average hotels, thethree proxy variables in the national models relate closely, and have long-running stablerelationships. The results showed that in each regional model there exists at leastone-way causality for all possible variable pairs, and variations occur according to differenttourist attractions and selected hotels. 為了解台灣國內旅遊需求、旅館經營和經濟發展之關係探討，本文以國內旅遊人次、旅館營收和個人可支配所得的季資料為代理變數，進行共整合和因果關係檢定。文中探討之國內旅遊（internal tourism）依UNWTO之定義，包括台灣本國人民和外籍旅客於台灣境內之旅遊。為深入探討不同形式之國內旅遊，分別建立兩個整體面和三個區域面的國內旅遊模型，整體面之模型包含標準和國際型旅館之探討，區域面國內旅遊模型則挑選三個具代表性的著名旅遊景點：日月潭、阿里山和墾丁進行分析。不管是哪種分類的旅館，在整體面國內旅遊模型中三個代理變數均存在共整合及雙向的因果關係；然而在三個區域面模型中，至少有一單向的因果關係。

為了解台灣國內旅遊需求、旅館經營和經濟發展之關係探討，本文以國內旅遊人次、旅館營收和個人可支配所得的季資料為代理變數，進行共整合和因果關係檢定。文中探討之國內旅遊（internal tourism）依UNWTO之定義，包括台灣本國人民和外籍旅客於台灣境內之旅遊。為深入探討不同形式之國內旅遊，分別建立兩個整體面和三個區域面的國內旅遊模型，整體面之模型包含標準和國際型旅館之探討，區域面國內旅遊模型則挑選三個具代表性的著名旅遊景點：日月潭、阿里山和墾丁進行分析。不管是哪種分類的旅館，在整體面國內旅遊模型中三個代理變數均存在共整合及雙向的因果關係；然而在三個區域面模型中，至少有一單向的因果關係。