美國都會地區妨害性自主與竊盜犯罪關聯性之分析

An Correlational Analysis Between Burglary Incidents And Sexual Assaults In An American Urban City

本研究利用1974年至2001年間西雅圖警局所蒐集不同社區的犯罪資料，其中包含殺人罪、妨害性自主罪等13種不同的犯罪類型，以了解妨害性自主案件和其他犯罪案件間的關係，及這些犯罪事件發生時的歷史和社會背景。結果發現妨害性自主罪自1974年開始逐年上升，一直到1980年達到最高峰，且和闖空門總案件數(r=0.827)、非住宅闖空門案件數(r=0.860)、及住宅闖空門案件數(r=0.767)均有高相關。依據妨害性自主案件及依據加重竊盜罪總案件數、私宅加重竊盜罪總案件數及非私宅加重竊盜罪總案件數所做之群集分析，也有類似的結果。樹狀圖結果顯示，住宅加重竊盜罪案件數是造成西雅圖妨害性自主案件數差異的主要因子，而非住宅加重竊盜罪案件數則為次要原因。色情刊物的大量消費及墮胎合法化、越戰、青少年問題及毒品、槍枝的氾濫可能是犯罪總案件數及妨害性自主犯件數在同年份間具有群集現象的部分原因。而經濟方面的改善，則可能是讓犯罪事件趨緩的原因之一。

The current study explores the association between sexual assaults and residential burglaries using longitudinal crime data collected from Seattle Police Department. Ecological theories such as social disorganization theory have been applied to explain the spatial distributions of predatory crime like burglary and sexual assaults in urban environment. This study takes one step further to integrate innovative biostatistics to help capture the diversity among different types of crime in social-ecological environment. The findings showed that sexual offenses were highly correlated with the total number of burglaries (r = 0.827), the number of non-residential burglaries (r = 0.860), and the number of residential burglaries (r = 0.767). Similar findings were achieved in the cluster analysis and the mid-1990s seems to be a turning point on crime trends in general. The tree diagram further revealed that the number of aggravated residential burglaries was the major factor underlying the variation of the numbers of sexual offenses in Seattle followed by the numbers of aggravated non-residential burglaries. Potential historical factors during the period were discussed to explain the patterns identified in the paper.