資訊透明度與分析師預測準確性——產業層面觀點

Information Transparency and Analysts' Forecasts Accuracy–An Industry Perspective

本研究由產業層面探討資訊透明度與分析師預測準確性之關連性，以美國上市公司為研究對象，樣本資料取自1991-2008 Compustat及I/B/E/S的年度財務報表資訊。實證結果發現產業相關的資訊，確實會影響分析師的預測準確性，包括產業集中度越高時，分析師的盈餘預測準確性越低，而政府有提供經濟誘因的產業，則分析師盈餘預測準確性越高。最後，當產業內其他成員已提供的資訊，越會同步影響其他未提供資訊成員時，意謂著產業內資訊移轉效果較高，此時分析師盈餘預測準確性也會越高，且當產業中充滿越多新資訊時，分析師基於維持良好聲譽或成為意見領袖考量，會更積極透過私有管道以取得獨特資訊，因此有助於提高盈餘預測準確性。

This paper examines the relationship between information transparency and analysts' forecast accuracy on the basis of industry. Using data from Compustat and I/B/E/S, we provide evidence indicating that the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts is lower for firms in more concentrated industries. We further discover that firms belonging to industries with government economic incentives are associated with higher forecast accuracy. With industry-level information transfer effect variable, the more information that is common to all industry members, the higher the analysts' forecast accuracy. Additionally, more industry-level news also enables analysts to conduct more efficient evaluations of a firm's future prospects. Overall, the results indicate that higher transparency within the industry will allow analysts to forecast with higher accuracy, which will then increase market demand for analysts' reports. Thus, in the governance process of raising information transparency, competent authorities should also consider options for fostering transparency at the industrial level.